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Thursday, June 24, 2010

Bahamas: The Health of Andros Coral Reef Systems

Andros reef health is 'good'
By NOELLE NICOLLS
Tribune Staff Reporter
nnicolls@tribunemedia.net:



CORAL reefs along the eastern coast of Andros are in good condition, according to American scientists from the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center (AUTEC), a United States Navy site located in Andros.

Researchers presented 2007 and 2008 findings on the health of Andros reef systems to a delegation of Bahamian and United States government officials, including acting Prime Minister, Brent Symonette and US Ambassador Nicole Avant.

"Live coral cover has remained stable over the past three years with a slight increase each year. Commercially significant fish biomass is three to four times higher than (in the wider) Caribbean," said Marc Ciminello, AUTEC scientist.

Mr Ciminello said they observed high levels of lion fish in their latest survey on the 34 monitoring locations; however, they found no changes in species diversity because of the presence of the lionfish.

These findings depart significantly from research previously reviewed by Bahamian authorities on lionfish. Neil McKinney, Board president for the Bahamas National Trust (BNT) referred to research conducted by Dr Mark Hixon, marine biologist and professor at Oregon State University. Dr Hixon's research indicates small reef fish populations can be slashed by up to 80 per cent within a short period of the introduction of lionfish.

Mr Ciminello could not account for the discrepancies. He said he was not aware of the study and would be interested in reviewing the data mentioned by Mr McKinney. The data and analysis from AUTEC's annual reef surveys are submitted to Bahamian authorities annually for use in setting management protocols.

Although the scientists said the reefs could be harmed by dropped anchors, debris, plastic and fishing line, Thomas Szlyk, one of the researchers, said the human impact to the Andros reef systems was minimal due to the low population density. He said so responding to questions about how the research has impacted resource management decisions in the past.

Earl Deveaux, Minister of Environment, said he did not completely agree. He pointed to the bridge in Fresh Creek, Andros, which is the only land-based crossing point between Red Bay and Behring Point. One of the AUTEC research sites is located near Fresh Creek. "The bridge at Fresh Creek is the only opportunity to cross in the part of Andros. So the 7,000 people who might want to take that drive pass that one bridge. I think that is a huge cumulative impact. And they have to pass London Creek, which is one of these roads built over creek systems without a culvert, so whatever gas, oil or pollution that would likely fall and whatever impact that road had must be more significant in that environment than it would ordinarily be," said Mr Deveaux.

In order to provide additional information that would be relevant to authorities, Mr Deveaux recommended the scientists include in their survey design next year indicators to determine the relationship between the coastal environment on land and the health of the reef systems.

"Is there a relationship between the volume of blue holes, the type of vegetation, the flow of the current in the terrestrial environment and what they find on the reef in terms of biomass, fish species and the variety of fish on the reef? If they could do that it would help influence our decisions. If they could put that in their research and document it then we would know over time how to influence our road building activities and our farming activities," said Minister Deveaux.

Preliminary data seems to indicate a correlation, according to the researchers. Mr Ciminello said they found that the "healthier sites" were in the vicinity of blue holes.

June 24, 2010

tribune242

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Operation Peter Pan - Cuba

Peter Pan and child trafficking
By Gabriel Molina:



• IT is particularly difficult for Cuba’s enemies to justify the reason for U.S. citizens being prohibited to travel freely to Cuba.

Approximately 10 years ago, almost at the end of his second term, President William Clinton attempted to restore that right to his compatriots. At that time he affirmed that allowing citizens to travel to Cuba would be in the interest of the United States, as the best means of influencing the island.

But the rights and interests of U.S. citizens are not being respected. Mafia groups from Florida demanded of Clinton’s successor, the hated Bush, that he revoke that policy given that, incredibly, the ones who were influenced were the visitors and not the visited.

In total contrast to what is happening in relation to other underdeveloped countries, the interest of those groups, mostly located in Miami, is to provoke Cubans into leaving the island and taking refuge in the United States. Its neighbors cannot understand why, while walls have been constructed to keep them out, all kinds of obstacles are being put in their way, while they are hunted, maltreated, expelled and even killed, Cubans reaching U.S. territory illegally are given refugee status and all kinds of privileges – in the name of democracy and freedom.

That arbitrary regulation has been the cause of an incessant human trafficking that has turned into a lucrative and deadly business.

It all began 50 years ago, when in 1960 the CIA came up with a false law widely reproduced and distributed by its agents. In that way, Cubans were led to believe that the revolutionary government had decided to remove parental custody of children and abrogate it to the state.

An unheard of mass of confused children preparing to travel alone to the United States began to crowd into Havana’s José Martí airport. That was because approximately 14,000 families failed to think or act sensibly and let themselves be deceived by the criminal plot organized by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), under the codename Operation Peter Pan.

Researchers José Wajasán and Ramón Torreira describe it as "a sinister manipulation on the part of Washington of the major fears of Cuban parents."

In their book Operation Peter Pan, the authors quote documents from the Kennedy Library declassified from National Security Files, which, via a letter from General Maxwell Taylor, inform of a covert action program to defeat the Cuban government.

For the first time on October 26, 1960, the CIA-created Radio Swan referred to a supposed law to take children aged 5 to 18 from their parents, in order to convert them into "monsters of [Marxist] materialism."

The custody conspiracy had gone into operation by word of mouth months earlier. Initially the CIA gave the task to the conspiracy group headed by the ex-prime minister of the Carlos Prío government, known as Pony Varona, a derivative of his name Tony, in honor of his lack of personal refinement.

Later, other groups became involved, because Varona left the country, leaving the mission in the hands of his closest partners, Leopoldina and Ramón Grau Alsina, niece and nephew of ex-president Ramón Grau San Martín, who confessed their guilt after their arrest. They printed out the false law, saying that they had stolen it from President Dorticós’ office and circulated it clandestinely. The apocryphal document stated in its Article 3: "When this law comes into effect, the custody of persons under 20 years of age will be exercised by the state via persons or organizations to which this faculty has been delegated."

Panic virtually spread among thousands of Cuban families. Having structured the plot at national and continental level, the U.S. government stated that it could take in all Cuban minors who wished to travel there, without visas or papers. In that violation of its own immigration laws, Washington gave large sums of money to the airline companies to transport the minors to Miami.

Father Bryan O. Walsh, whom the authorities placed at the head of the program, declared years later that he received approximately 15,000 children. It was a tremendous paradox: parents abandoned their children to an unknown fate, with the ingenuous intention of protecting them.

The majority of those children suffered from major traumas that culminated in a total sense of non-belonging. Some of them learned alone to insert themselves in society, while there were extreme cases like that of Robert Rodríguez who, at the age of 55, brought a lawsuit before a Miami court, claiming that during the five years that he was under a "protection program in the archdiocese of the city, he was the victim, along with other children, of continuous sexual and emotional abuse." He affirmed that "he was mistreated and sexually abused in the various camps where he was placed, as were other children taken there."

During the last 50 years, a number of variations of Operation Peter Pan have emerged from Miami and Washington. The most recent one, essayed since 2003, did not surprise anyone. It was very much part of the excesses of the Bush administration, looked down on by the rest of the world on account of its unscrupulous form of government. But, by maintaining Cuba on the list of countries trafficking minors – as it announced on June 14 – the government of President Barack Obama, which it was thought had a minimum amount of decency, is destroying the few hopes of change that some people might still be holding onto. •

June 23, 2010

granma.cu


Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Rednecks in Chavezland

By John Little - Opednews.com:


One of the most bizarre features of my time here in Venezuela is the incredibly hypocritical way the redneck Americans who are here with me react to their foreign surroundings. They can’t stop praising almost everything about Venezuela, yet they also condemn almost everything about Venezuela.

Huh? “Splain, Lucy!”

It’s a given that all the rednecks consider Chavez to be a dictator. They can spout verbatim the entire Fox News storyline on Chavez and his horrible government. They have absolutely nothing good to say about him, about Socialism in general, and about how he is the epitome of all things evil.

But when they get sick and go to the free clinic just across the street from the main office, they are delighted that they are attended to immediately and at no charge. They grin from ear to ear when they go to the local pharmacy store and walk right up to the counter, order their medicine, and pay pennies on the dollar for it. They sing praises to the high heavens that they don’t need to schedule an appointment to see a doctor, and pay for it, then get the prescription, then go to the pharmacy and wait up to a day or two to get their medicine.

But Chavez is never, ever mentioned in all this glee. No one bothers to state that it’s because of socialized medicine that they are so well taken care of in such a “backward” country. It would be unconscionable for any redneck to actually equate their great medical attention to the current government of the country. That’s forbidden.

The rednecks are quick to complain about the violence. “It’s all Chavez’s fault,” they readily say.

“I always take my knife with me, wherever I go,” Cajun states. “They ain’t taking my money from me without a fight. Unless there’s more than three of them. Then I have to accept I’m gonna get the crap beat out of me.”

Cajun’s a good ol’ boy from Louisiana. He knows all about being taken hostage, having been one twice in Nigeria. He didn't have a problem with it since the Nigerians allowed him to drink and eat as he pleased. The oil company he was working for always promptly paid the ransom demand to free him and the others and he readily admits that the perks there are so great that he’d love to do another oil rig there.

But this is Venezuela, not Nigeria. And the inordinate amount of violence is preached everywhere here, especially on the American channels that are so popular here, like Fox and CNN. Yep, guess what, all Venezuelans get to watch as much American propaganda TV as they want, thanks to Chavez’s supposed “lack of free speech.” Just one more thing the rednecks quickly discuss until they mention what they saw the night before on CNN or Fox. Then, it’s as if they were in another country watching the show and magically returned to Venezuela once the show was over.

Cajun’s never been attacked. Nor has any of the other rednecks. In fact, when you ask them individually, they admit that the level of violence appears to be less than their home town of Tulsa, or Houston, or Atlanta, or elsewhere. But of course, that’s got to be because of all the minorities back home, not Chavez in Venezuela.

Now don’t get me wrong, the city here has its share of violence. Like I’ve mentioned earlier, I read the newspaper daily. There seems to be some malfeasance going on in surrounding communities everyday. That’s not a good sign. That’s also one of the reasons I’d like to see a few more cop cars on the streets. I guess old habits die hard.

But compared to the US, things are extremely calm. I never hear police, fire or ambulance sirens during the evening. In fact, I haven’t a clue what they sound like. Well, I did hear a police siren the other day and it sounded extraterrestrial to be honest. Apparently, the police were hungry for a Big Mac and didn’t want to wait their turn to park.

Another area that cracks me up to no end is in the language arena. Apparently, all the rednecks think that some language program called Rosetta Stone will instantly transform them into bilinguals. They seem to be both amazed and depressed at the fact that Venezuelans speak a language other than English and that not every single Venezuelan is fluent in American Southern English.

Rednecks are funny. They have never heard of the expression, “When in Rome, do as the Romans do.” They think they’re in the US, only with great Socialist perks that they can take advantage of. They praise the country they’re in, yet condemn the government that gives it to them. Hypocrisy 2010, it’s all the rage in Venezuela.

June 17th 2010

venezuelanalysis

Monday, June 21, 2010

Crime and unemployment could result in changes in government in Belize and the Caribbean

By Wellington C. Ramos:


I have always listened to many world leaders speaking about what they would like to accomplish for the citizens of their respective countries during their tenures in office and have very seldom heard any of them committing themselves to provide full time employment to all their citizens.

Born in Dangriga Town, the cultural capital of Belize, Wellington Ramos has BAs in Political Science and History from Hunter College, NY, and an MA in Urban Studies from Long Island University. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science and HistoryYet, if the citizens of a country are unemployed they will not be in the position to provide for themselves and their families, which will leave the burden on the government. A caring government should always make full employment its top priority. Any government that does not have this issue on the top of there list is embarking on an impossible journey.

Maybe, if the government of Belize had this issue at the top of their agenda when they first came into office, crime would not be escalating in Belize at the rate it is today. I have looked at several studies over the years and it is documented that there is a direct relationship between crime and employment. When a government has failed to provide meaningful employment to its citizens, a majority of the criminals will use that reason as a justification to commit crimes.

Knowing my Belizean people, a majority of them will say but how come when we were growing up we grew up hard and did not have to commit crimes. Well, we grew up in different times and this new generation is a lot different from the people who grew up during our time.

A majority of these young people are exposed to different things that we were not exposed to when we were growing up and the things that they are currently exposed to are what shape their thoughts and influence their actions. Some of the things as parents and guardians we have control of but a majority of them we lack control over.

The common cry in Belize is that this young generation is lazy and they do not want to do anything but beg, sell drugs and steal. There might be some truth to this but time and things have changed in our country, in all the other countries in the Caribbean and the rest of the world.

It is not the responsibility of the private sector to provide full employment to the citizens of a country. That burden lies on the government through a long term plan that gives incentives to private businesses to invest their funds in the economy where they can make profits for themselves and expand their businesses.

A person that has money to invest will not spend his or her money until they have evaluated a government’s incentive package. If they come to the conclusion that there is nothing there for them, then they will just sit on the side and hold on to their money until the government comes out with a package that is favorable to them.

Most businesses are attracted to tax incentives, inducements and business loans. In Belize, there were several of these given to political parties cronies who were not legitimate business people over the years and the taxpayers’ money went to waste, causing DFC to go bankrupt. Some of these individuals still owe the Belizean taxpayers and they are not being pursued for the outstanding debts.

That same money could have been given to a legitimate business owner who would have provided jobs to many citizens. Giving businesses reasonable tax incentives for hiring people is a wise thing to do. The incentive should be measured and monitored because it will take away from the government’s revenue.

The government of Belize came out with a comprehensive plan to combat crime and it was impressive. If this is backed up by a similar plan to deal with unemployment, land reform and lot acquisition, it will be difficult for them to lose re-election.

Belizeans are tired of seeing foreigners come into their country to be given lots and lands, while they are asked to fill out applications wait for years and never hear back anything from the Lands Department. Plus, when they go to Belmopan there is no record that they ever applied for any lot or land while watching the foreigners living in their new homes and forcefully taking lands to do their farming.

There is enough land in Belize to give every Belizean citizen living in Belize, the United States and abroad a lot and farm land so that they can own a part of their country and be proud citizens, so what is causing this big delay?

The Ministers of Trade, Industry, Labour, Agriculture, Commerce and Foreign Investment must now get together and formulate a comprehensive package to tackle unemployment in Belize. I have not seen any statistics on what is Belize’s unemployment rate but my guess is that it is over 25%. When they brought out the poverty rate recently, it was alarming and this is because of the unemployment situation, which has a major impact on most or the citizens’ social and economic conditions.

If the government of Belize can get a commitment to establish about three large industrial factories in each district and offer lots and farm lands to a majority of the unemployed residents of Belize City to build a home and do farming elsewhere, the country of Belize would become a more prosperous nation.

Belize City is too old and is suffering from serious urban decay and decline. I used to live in Belize City many years ago and it is a different city today. To live in a city just to say you live in a city, where you feel unsafe and insecure is not worth it. In real estate, a person who has a home is always looking for a peaceful, quiet and enjoyable environment to live.

I still believe that our country of Belize can be a better place than what it is today but, for that to happen, we need to get the Belizeans who are nationalistic, committed, qualified and possess the human resources to be at the helm of our future developmental planning to make it happen. Most of Belize’s resources live in the United States and the sooner they tap them, the faster they will have their problems resolved.

Before America became a powerful nation in the world, the founding fathers sat down and planned out America’s path to world dominance. Who are going to be the Belizeans in the group to sit down and plan out Belize’s path?

June 21, 2010

caribbeannetnews

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Gulf of Mexico Oil spill, failure of laissez-faire governance


Oil spill, failure of laissez-faire governance



By Dennis Morrison, Contributor:

AMERICANS ARE feeling helpless as there appears to be no end in sight to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the round-the-clock cable coverage with images of coastal wetlands being overrun and beaches tarred in a large section of the region. It is a catastrophe not just for the Gulf region but for North America, as these wetlands comprise nearly a half of the total wetlands of the continent and support a substantial part of the United States (US) seafood industry. The Obama administration is taking a shellacking for the inevitable chaos that has resulted as confusing layers of federal, state and local bureau-cracies scramble to mount clean-up operations.

I suspect, however, that the frustration Americans are feeling arises from the sense that their society, which prides itself on technological mastery in all human activities, is powerless to plug the leak. This sense of powerlessness does not fit at all well with the psyche of the all-conquering America that has dominated the race to outer space and outdone its rivals in military technology for the last century. Shouldn't the US military with its smart technology and super-efficient command and control systems be able to sort out the mess? Surely, this ought not to happen to Americans, of all people.

What the Deepwater Horizon disaster has laid bare is not so much American technological inadequacies, but the failure of its oil industry regulatory system at all levels. It comes 30 years after laissez-faire ideology gained ascendency in the Reagan-Thatcher era and the crusade to roll back government involvement in regulating markets. We now know, too, that in the new milieu, relations between public officials and the oil industry were marked by rampant corruption. This is how BP came to have been permitted to drill for oil at record depths below the ocean floor with scant consideration for disaster mitigation, as their plans were simply rubber-stamped.

Painful fallout

The calamitous failure of government regulation has not been limited to the oil industry or, for that matter, to the United States. The near collapse of the US and British financial systems in 2008 can be traced directly to the liberalisation of Western financial markets that was at the centre of the resurgence of laissez-faire capitalism in the 1980s. Regulatory systems put in place after the banking system meltdown in the 1930s were upended on the altar of ideology. Only after massive bailouts were major economies able to avert disaster, but now the painful fallout is being felt and the recovery appears tepid.

In the porous regulatory systems that existed since the 1980s, yuppies on Wall Street and in the City of London turned financial markets into casinos, gambling with the savings of the economies. With financial institutions collapsing like ninepins, credit markets froze, sending the world economy into decline for the first time in 70 years, and simultaneously with world trade for the first time ever. The US, and more so Europe, are struggling to emerge from recession, which is being made harder by the huge fiscal and debt burdens arising from the financial crisis, and the Americans are plagued by record levels of long-term unemployment.

Jamaica did not escape the liberalisation fever, freeing up its financial system in the 1980s and 1990s. Leaky regulations allowed reckless lending between connected parties, backed by inadequate collateral. Banks, especially indigenously owned ones, operated without regard for prudent risk management. After what was an enormous govern-ment bailout in the late 1990s, among the highest as a percentage of the size of the economy, new financial regulations to tighten the system had to be promulgated, which is partly why Jamaica's financial system was unaffected by the recent crisis.

Where Jamaica perhaps suffered the greatest damage from economic liberalisation was the premature abolition of exchange controls in September 1991. That action, taken at the behest of Washington-based international financial institutions and the leadership of the local private sector, came ahead of the necessary fiscal and monetary measures to ensure a less-turbulent transition to a stable foreign-exchange market. What transpired was a protracted period of high inflation which was only put down by repressive monetary policy [high interest rates] that contributed to the financial sector meltdown of the late 1990s.

Costly failures

The business failures arising from escalating debt due to the hike in interest rates hurt several sectors of the local economy. Moreover, the high interest paid on 'safe' government instruments distorted the risk appetite of investors, even as it sent government debt payments skyrocketing. Borrowing had to be increased to service existing debts, and with interest payments eating up a greater share of revenues, less was available for investment in education, health, and national security.

The failure of markets globally has been costly and, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the rationale for regulation of markets has regained legitimacy. Reflecting this, the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and other institutions that shape the Washington Consensus have adopted a more pragmatic view of the role of the State in regulating economies. The resurgence of the political right in the US, notwithstanding, the ideological centre has shifted to the left globally, hence we have in Britain a Conservative-Liberal-Democratic coalition, which is projecting a softer face for British capitalism.

Financial markets, though, are exerting pressures to rein in government economic stimulus that could set back the recovery. It would be a mistake to put the state back into a laissez-faire mode, bearing in mind the consequential damage to the economy as is being witnessed even now in the Gulf of Mexico.

Dennis Morrison is an economist. Send feedback to columns @gleaner jm.com.






June 20, 2010



jamaica-gleaner

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Will Jamaica soon abolish appeals to the Privy Council?

by Oscar Ramjeet:


It seems as if the Bruce Golding administration in Jamaica has had a change of heart and is now contemplating abolishing appeals to the Privy Council so that the country could join the Appellate Division of the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ).

Oscar Ramjeet is an attorney at law who practices extensively throughout the wider CaribbeanThe reason for my opinion is that the country's Governor General Sir Patrick Allen earlier this week administered the oath of office to Jamaican born Professor Winston Anderson as a judge of the CCJ in Kingston and that Prime Minister Bruce Golding spoke in appreciative, though measured, terms of the court’s performance in its five years.

The move to administer the oath to a CCJ judge outside Port of Spain is unprecedented, but it has been reported that the request came from Professor Anderson in order to facilitate his mother and other relatives to witness the ceremony.

An editorial in the Jamaican Gleaner states, "It seems likely that Mr Golding will at next month's summit of Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders indicate that his government has completed its re-evaluation of Jamaica's absence from the court and is now ready to begin to plan its accession. This is the difficult bit."

The governing JLP two decades ago was in the forefront, along with Trinidad and Tobago, of the establishment of the CCJ.

I recall while I was solicitor general of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the late 1980s, the attorney general of Edward Seaga 's JLP administration, Oswald Harding, was travelling around the region, along with the late Selwyn Richardson, who was the attorney general of the twin island republic, trying to lobby CARICOM leaders to join the court, but the party changed its stand and vehemently opposed the regional court in its role as the court of last resort in criminal and civil matters.

Their concern was mainly the question of the independence of the CCJ, which the JLP continued to advance even after it was clear that the court was insulated against political interference.

The JLP went further when it successfully challenged the constitution at the Privy Council against Jamaica's participation in the CCJ as was then contemplated.

If the JLP is now in favour for Jamaica to join the CCJ as the final appellate court instead of the Privy Council, there should be no problem because the opposition People's National Party is a strong supporter of the CCJ.

The Jamaican government is contributing 27% of the costs to run and administer the CCJ and has not been getting any benefit whatsoever, since it has not yet abolished appeals to the Privy Council.

Belize is the third country to join Guyana and Barbados, and now that Trinidad and Tobago has a new government, legal circles in the twin island republic feel that the new Prime Minister, Kamla Persad Bissessar, a West Indian-trained attorney might be in favour of the CCJ.

She has already indicated that she will fully embrace CARICOM and its members. She is known to be close to CARICOM colleagues and, as a matter of fact, she invited five of them from Barbados and St Kitts to attend Friday's opening of Parliament in Port of Spain.

She recently commented on the poor state of West Indies cricket, and said that every effort should be made to solve the problems between the West Indies Cricket Board (WICB) and the West Indies Players Association (WIPA), since she said that cricket is one of the pillars of Caribbean unity.

St Lucia, Dominica and Grenada are also considering going on board. The Ralph Gonsalves administration in St Vincent and the Grenadines wanted to join also, but it failed in its referendum to amend the constitution on November 25 last.

However, in my view, it is not that Vincentians do not want to remove the Privy Council as the final court, but the referendum was loaded with a series of constitutional amendments, including more powers to the prime minister, and a president to replace the governor general.

It is unfortunate that CARICOM countries take so long or are somewhat reluctant to be a part of the regional system since the CCJ was inaugurated on April 12, 2005.

I was privileged to visit the court while in Port of Spain for the Fifth Summit of the Americans and was impressed with what I have seen -- besides the well equipped libraries, spacious conference room, robing room, etc, I was elated with the courtroom’s appearance, with the most modern telephonic and other fascinating equipment, which is said to be some of the best in the world.

The facilities include a document reader/visual presenter; ability to use laptop computers, DVF/VCR; audio/video digital recording (microphones situated throughout the courtroom); wireless internet access, and audio/video transcripts.

June 19, 2010

caribbeannetnews

Friday, June 18, 2010

The Politics of Leadership: Part 2 of Guyana and its Presidency

By Sir Ronald Sanders:


Every present indicator strongly suggests that, at the end of next year’s general elections in Guyana, the presidency of the country will remain with the Peoples Progressive Party (PPP) which seems certain to win more votes than any other party.

The Constitution of Guyana states that a presidential candidate shall be deemed to be elected president “if more votes are cast in favour of the list in which he is designated as presidential candidate than in favour of any other list”. In other words, the successful presidential candidate requires only a plurality of the votes, not an overall majority.

Sir Ronald Sanders is a business executive and former Caribbean diplomat who publishes widely on small states in the global community. Reponses to: www.sirronaldsanders.comHowever, to form the government on its own a political party does require an overall majority. So, even though the PPP could secure the presidency by winning the most votes, it needs an overall majority to form the government by itself.

Should the PPP fail to get more than 50% of the votes cast, it would be forced to seek support from among other parties to form a coalition government.

The main opposition party, the Peoples National Congress (PNC), which is expected to secure the second largest bloc of votes, would also be compelled to talk with other parties if the possibility exists that, together, their votes comprise more than 50% of the total votes cast.

At the 2006 general elections, the PPP secured 53.39 per cent of the vote, the PNC got 33.4 percent and the Alliance for Change (AFC) won 8 per cent. The remaining 7 parties managed to get only 5.21 per cent between them.

The PPP’s General Secretary, Donald Ramotar, who is among those expected to be the PPP’s candidate for the presidency, is confident that the PPP will win an overall majority. As the basis for this, he points to the PPP’s increased backing in the last two general elections in administrative regions that were traditionally supportive of the PNC. He attributes these increases to the PPP’s performance which, he says, demonstrates that it delivers services to communities regardless of race. He also states that the PPP is engaged in an active recruitment campaign of new members of all races.

Interestingly, Ramotar regards the AFC’s participation in the next election as a threat to the PNC and, as a consequence, a help to the PPP. He appears convinced that the AFC’s vote comes from disgruntled and disaffected PNC supporters, not from the PPP.

For his part, the leader of the PNC, Robert Corbin, is firmly of the view that “a fragmented PNC and a disunited opposition cannot displace the PPP”. He favours a “broad coalition” of the opposition parties to contest the 2011 election, and he regards a cohesive PNC as important to such a process. In this connection, he laments the present division within the PNC and says: “I consider it an insult after my life-long service in the PNC to have my name besmirched in a baseless rumour that I placed my personal ambition over the party” by doing a deal with Guyana’s current President Bharrat Jagdeo to permit him a constitutionally-barred third term in office. He also repeated to me that “Jagdeo never once raised a third term with me”, and that at all of their meetings note-takers were present.

The notion of a “broad coalition” of opposition parties is shared by Rupert Roopnarine, one of the leaders of the Working Peoples Alliance (WPA) founded by the legendary Walter Rodney. Roopnarine regards the PPP as “defeatable” but only by such a “grand coalition”.

And, there have been informal discussions between representatives of the PNC, the WPA and the AFC about the possibility of such a coalition. Indeed, Corbin states that one of the reasons he has said that he will not be a presidential candidate for the PNC is that if the coalition is created it will name its own agreed candidate and that person may not come from the PNC.

Within the AFC, however, there is, as yet, no agreement on participation in a coalition of opposition parties. Some in the leadership of the AFC find an alliance with the PNC as hard to swallow as one with the PPP. Certainly Sheila Holder and Kemraj Ramjattan appear keen to maintain the AFC’s individual identity. A meeting of its National Executive Committee, to which I referred in my last commentary, did not agree to rotate its leadership from Raphael Trotman to Ramjattan as expected. Instead, the meeting “reaffirmed its commitment to the principle of rotation of its top two candidates for the 2011 election bid” and deferred the matter to its national convention later this year.

Among the disaffected leadership of the PNC, there are those who appear convinced that the PNC can win the election on its own. The only problem they see is Corbin’s continued leadership of the Party. As they view it, if Corbin would step aside and allow the party to be reenergised and refocused under its former Chairman, Winston Murray, the party would be a viable contestant for both the glittering prize of the Presidency and the government, both of which have eluded them since 1992.

Against this background it is understandable why some of the leaders of the opposition parties consider it desirable to form a grand coalition in advance of the elections to jointly fight the PPP. For, if the PPP does not win an overall majority, it would need a much smaller number of votes to take it over 50 per cent than would the PNC, and doing that deal would be considerably easier than trying to cobble together a coalition of 10 parties (9 opposition parties that contested the last elections plus the WPA that didn’t).

Putting together such a grand coalition is by no means easy. Agreeing on a presidential candidate may be the least of the problems which will include settling the distribution of parliamentary seats, ministerial portfolios and a set of agreed priority policies and programmes to move the country forward.

While the manoeuvrings within political parties are going on, policies have not risen to the top of debates within the country, but the issues are becoming obvious, among them: a huge gap between “haves” and “have nots”; the need for racial balance in public appointments and crime.

Guyana’s recent economic advancement under Jagdeo has to be developed to provide tangible benefits for all the people. And, the people – particularly the young - will want to hear how and when this will be achieved.

June 18, 2010

Politics of Leadership - Guyana and its presidency (Part-1)

The Politics of Leadership: Guyana and its Presidency (Part 3)

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