The Bahamas Rising National Debt

The Bahamas is grappling with a substantial national debt that is above 100% of GDP

A Debt Pitfall 

By Dr. Kevin Turnquest-Alcena
Nassau, The Bahamas

"Deo adjuvante,non timendum" "with God as my helper,I have nothing to fear "  

To fully assess the financial challenges facing The Bahamas, we must learn from countries like Argentina, Jamaica, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela, all of which suffered economic crises due to unsustainable debt and currency devaluation.  The Bahamas must be cautious with its public finances to avoid similar pitfalls.

With the Bahamas' current debt at $11 billion and a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 100%, we are at risk of entering a debt trap.  Lessons from other countries show that failure to manage debt and implement necessary reforms can lead to economic instability, inflation, and currency devaluation.

The IMF has warned about The Bahamas' rising debt and recommended measures such as economic diversification, improved tax compliance, and controlled public spending.  To prevent financial collapse, we need to ensure borrowed funds are invested productively, and strategies must be based on accurate, empirical data.

1. Bahamian Debt Levels (2023): 

   - According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF),the Bahamas' public debt was around 102% of GDP at the end of 2022.  The IMF continues to express concerns about the nation’s fiscal trajectory if corrective reforms are not implemented. 

   - The Bahamas Ministry of Finance released an update stating that as of mid-2023, the country’s debt reached approximately $11 billion, a substantial figure for a small economy.  This includes external debt and domestic borrowing.

   

2. Debt to GDP Ratio:

   - The debt-to-GDP ratio has been hovering above the critical 100% mark, which signals high vulnerability in terms of debt sustainability.  Many countries face economic instability when their debt exceeds their GDP, making it harder to service debt without growing the economy or reducing deficits.

3. Recent Borrowing and IMF Support:

   - The Bahamas has received financial assistance from various international organizations, including the IMF, during the COVID-19 pandemic.  This support aimed to stabilize the economy during the collapse of tourism, which constitutes a significant portion of the nation's revenue.

   - The IMF’s 2023 Article IV Consultation on The Bahamas stresses that the country still faces significant fiscal challenges, and while the tourism sector is recovering, the public finances are far from sustainable.  Recommendations include diversifying revenue sources and structural reforms to curb public spending.

4. External Debt:

   - The external debt of The Bahamas accounts for a significant portion of its overall debt, with borrowing from multilateral institutions and private lenders.  External debt servicing remains a concern given the currency peg and dependence on foreign reserves to maintain it.

5. Fiscal Outlook:

   - Both the IMF and Bahamian government stress that while the short-term recovery appears promising due to the return of tourism, without structural fiscal reforms, such as tax reform or expenditure cuts, the country’s debt levels could lead to long-term financial instability.

In summary, The Bahamas is grappling with a substantial national debt that is above 100% of GDP, with external borrowing playing a major role.  The reliance on tourism for revenue, coupled with ongoing fiscal deficits, exacerbates the risk of unsustainable debt levels unless structural economic reforms are enacted.

References:

•  [IMF Bahamas 2023 Article IV Consultation Report] (https://www. imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/02/07/The-Bahamas-2022-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-528453)

•  Bahamas Ministry of Finance Debt Update (2023)

•  Central Bank of the Bahamas Reports (2023) on fiscal trends

Source

Value Added Tax would be a critical element of tax reform in The Bahamas ...as the country battles significant fiscal deficits ...and alarmingly high debt

VAT storm builds

Year in Review

By CANDIA DAMES
Guardian News Editor
candia@nasguard.com
Nassau, The Bahamas

In recent months, concerns about value-added tax (VAT) have been mounting.  The debate over VAT has emerged as one of the most significant stories in 2013 and the expectation is that it will also be an important story in 2014.

The government has announced that VAT will be introduced on July 1, 2014.

The tax system would be a critical element of tax reform in The Bahamas as the country battles significant fiscal deficits and alarmingly high debt.

Financial Secretary John Rolle has said repeatedly that the cost of inaction would result in an unchecked rise in debt, less capacity to borrow for emergencies, which increases our vulnerability to shocks like hurricanes and sudden contractions in foreign economies on which we depend for tourists.

“There will also be a credit downgrade and eventual loss of access to credit markets,” he warned. “This will result in one outcome: Much higher tax increases, larger reductions in spending, possible reduction in public sector employment [and] scrutiny of the exchange rate parity.”

The Bahamas’ financial future faces a crisis.

On our current path, it is no understatement that we are doomed without action.

Government debt as at June 30, 2014 is projected to be $4.9 billion, compared to $2.4 billion as at July 2007.

The Bahamas has a legacy of high budget deficits.

Over the last two fiscal years, the government has seen a total deficit in excess of $500 million. The projected deficit at the end of 2013/2014 is $529 million.

The government intends to borrow $465 million to finance the projected revenue shortfall in the 2013/2014 fiscal year. This would add to the $650 million the current administration already borrowed.

Almost one out of every four dollars in revenue collected by the government must be allocated to pay the interest charges on the public debt and cover the debt repayment.

This current state of fiscal affairs is worrying on many levels, and it is unsustainable.

In the government’s white paper on tax reform, Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Perry Christie notes that the government’s revenue base is extremely narrow and ill-suited to the expanding needs and demands of modern Bahamian society.

The country’s tax system is out of balance as it predominantly focuses on goods, he pointed out.

It does not share the tax burden with those who are providing services in a way that is either fair or adequate.

The government has decided to go the way of value-added tax to secure an adequate revenue base in support of modern governance.

According to the white paper, the government intends to effect the eventual reductions in import duty rates that will accompany The Bahamas’ accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and reduce excise tax rates to compensate for VAT.

As a consumption tax, VAT provides a broader base for government revenue; imposes taxes on goods and services equally and imposes greater discipline on businesses, the white paper says.

It also says it encourages investments by providing incentives to business on capital expenditure, and the audit trail that would be required promotes greater efficiency in the collection of taxes.

In its look at various options for tax reform, the white paper highlights VAT as a more favorable option than a sales tax, which is a tax imposed at the final point of sale.

Agriculture and fisheries; social and community services; health and education services are among the areas that will be exempted.

But exemptions will be kept “to a bare minimum”, the government has advised.

The effectiveness of the tax is tied to many factors, including how it is implemented, tax experts and others with experience in effecting tax reform have said.

The VAT legislation and regulations are now in circulation, but it is unclear when they will be introduced in the House of Assembly.

Christie has said that while July 1 is a target date for implementation, it is not set in stone.

December 30, 2013

thenassauguardian

Bahamas Blog International

Yes, The Bahamas is in a serious debt position ...but the present government has a nerve to ask the Bahamian people for more tax money ...to support the continuation of the manner in which our past taxes have been wasted

Government Must Be Held Accountable For Public Spending

Tribune 242 Editorial
Nassau, The Bahamas:



SINCE THIS government has come on the scene, it has stumbled from one sink hole into another. Nothing seems to be going right, because there is no planning, no co-ordination, and, as we have said before, each cabinet minister seems to have his own agenda and his own game plan.

Several months ago, when it was suggested that Prime Minister Perry Christie should reshuffle his cabinet, he is quoted as having said words to the effect that the timing was not right as there were cabinet members who had agendas that they wanted to complete. If there were cohesion in the Christie government, the only agenda to be completed would be government’s agenda, and anyone not at one with that agenda would be shuffled out. This goes to the very core of what is wrong with this administration. There is no strong leader who can keep his colleagues following the same road map.

They don’t even seem to speak the same language. For example, with all the negative feedback, Mr Christie seems open to the idea of exploring new avenues to raise taxes, provided businessmen can suggest alternatives to VAT. Despite this, State Minister of Finance Michael Halkitis has said that there are no plans to postpone the July 1, 2014, date for the implementation of VAT. If there are no plans, then why should the Prime Minister ask for suggestions to find a new, less complicated way to raise taxes and drop VAT?

About the only subject on everyone’s lips today is VAT. And the more government spokesmen try to explain it the muddier the waters become. As a matter of fact, these spokespersons don’t seem to fully understand it themselves, leaving Bahamians at the end of their question-and-answer sessions more perplexed and less confident than before. As a result, public anger and confusion has grown. Grown to the point that at the end of the day the country might see a vocal group of young people ban together to hold government’s toes to the fire.

The Insight feature in today’s Tribune is a speech given by a young mother, who is also a branch manager of a local bank.

Tamara van Breugel, because of the lack of information coming from government, went on her own journey of education and was alarmed by what she discovered. Along the way, she also found many intelligent, like-minded young Bahamians who want to turn a new leaf in our history books and build a new Bahamas. They are fed up with the underhanded shenanigans that have been going on for far too long among what old Bahamians used to call their “representers”. So our readers should be on the watch for Citizens for a Better Bahamas. We predict that Mrs van Breugel’s speech is the launch of a vocal, enthusiastic and, we hope, more responsible Bahamian.

As we have said in this column before, for a government promising 10,000 jobs almost as soon as it became the government, the suggestion of VAT was suicidal. True, government has to get itself out of debt not only to prevent its credit rating from being downgraded, but to become a member of the World Trade Organisation (WHO). Among the many rules and regulations that have to be followed is that government will have to drop its tariffs on imported goods so that the goods of WHO members can enter the country more easily. This means that government will have to find a substitute to the present Customs duties. However, it does not mean that VAT is the answer. If government can’t police the collection of Customs duties now, it will never be able to afford enough inspectors to supervise VAT. A simple sales tax would seem the more sensible route.

Today, we publish a letter from a concerned Bahamian who vowed he would refuse to open his books to any government inspector, until government opened “their” books for public inspection. He was on the right path, but he made one mistake. Government’s books are not “their” books. These books belong to every taxpaying Bahamian. We have a right to know how our money is being spent. We have a right to demand that those books be opened for inspection.

This government started immediately on its grand shuffle among government employees, moving competent persons from their jobs, and replacing them with less competent party supporters. Not only does that create a state of inefficiency in a department, but it is a costly exercise. The clearing of land in the so-called Urban Renewal project was a scandalous waste of public funds. The money used was public money — our money — and we, the people have a right to know. Not only did workers trespass on private property, but the money handed out, regardless of the work to be done, warrants a public inquiry. A government representative is duty bound to prudently administer public funds — administer it as if it were his own. None of that prudence was shown in the Urban Renewal land clearance plan, for example — it was just pay-back election time. The public should demand an accounting of this scandal.

During this belt-tightening time, all of these overseas trips should he scaled down. Certainly, the public has a right to know the cost of every one of them, right down to the last glass of champagne. Remember, this is the public’s money that is being so liberally spent – while the public debt steadily rises.

Mrs van Breugel points out that in the auditor general’s 2010/2011 report, he discovered that:

• 5,980 cargo manifests had not been presented to Bahamas Customs for clearance;

• $95 million in real property taxes went uncollected, taking the total sum outstanding to $541.886 million;

• $302,866 of unpaid fuel from The Ministry of Works.

In the 2014/2015 fiscal budget, subsidies have been allocated as follows:

• $20 million to subsidise Bahamasair;

• $20 million in subsidies to Water and Sewerage;

• $7 million to the Bahamas Broadcasting Corporation.

And so the horror story of how the people’s money is being misspent continues.

Our finances would not be in such a sorry state if we had better managers in charge, and a government that did not believe that it can play Santa Claus with other people’s money.

Yes, the Bahamas is in a serious debt position, but this government has a nerve to ask the Bahamian people for more tax money to support the continuation of the manner in which our past taxes have been wasted.

November 18, 2013

Tribune 242 

Bahamas Blog International