The Politics of Leadership: Part 2 of Guyana and its Presidency

By Sir Ronald Sanders:


Every present indicator strongly suggests that, at the end of next year’s general elections in Guyana, the presidency of the country will remain with the Peoples Progressive Party (PPP) which seems certain to win more votes than any other party.

The Constitution of Guyana states that a presidential candidate shall be deemed to be elected president “if more votes are cast in favour of the list in which he is designated as presidential candidate than in favour of any other list”. In other words, the successful presidential candidate requires only a plurality of the votes, not an overall majority.

However, to form the government on its own a political party does require an overall majority. So, even though the PPP could secure the presidency by winning the most votes, it needs an overall majority to form the government by itself.

Should the PPP fail to get more than 50% of the votes cast, it would be forced to seek support from among other parties to form a coalition government.

The main opposition party, the Peoples National Congress (PNC), which is expected to secure the second largest bloc of votes, would also be compelled to talk with other parties if the possibility exists that, together, their votes comprise more than 50% of the total votes cast.

At the 2006 general elections, the PPP secured 53.39 per cent of the vote, the PNC got 33.4 percent and the Alliance for Change (AFC) won 8 per cent. The remaining 7 parties managed to get only 5.21 per cent between them.

The PPP’s General Secretary, Donald Ramotar, who is among those expected to be the PPP’s candidate for the presidency, is confident that the PPP will win an overall majority. As the basis for this, he points to the PPP’s increased backing in the last two general elections in administrative regions that were traditionally supportive of the PNC. He attributes these increases to the PPP’s performance which, he says, demonstrates that it delivers services to communities regardless of race. He also states that the PPP is engaged in an active recruitment campaign of new members of all races.

Interestingly, Ramotar regards the AFC’s participation in the next election as a threat to the PNC and, as a consequence, a help to the PPP. He appears convinced that the AFC’s vote comes from disgruntled and disaffected PNC supporters, not from the PPP.

For his part, the leader of the PNC, Robert Corbin, is firmly of the view that “a fragmented PNC and a disunited opposition cannot displace the PPP”. He favours a “broad coalition” of the opposition parties to contest the 2011 election, and he regards a cohesive PNC as important to such a process. In this connection, he laments the present division within the PNC and says: “I consider it an insult after my life-long service in the PNC to have my name besmirched in a baseless rumour that I placed my personal ambition over the party” by doing a deal with Guyana’s current President Bharrat Jagdeo to permit him a constitutionally-barred third term in office. He also repeated to me that “Jagdeo never once raised a third term with me”, and that at all of their meetings note-takers were present.

The notion of a “broad coalition” of opposition parties is shared by Rupert Roopnarine, one of the leaders of the Working Peoples Alliance (WPA) founded by the legendary Walter Rodney. Roopnarine regards the PPP as “defeatable” but only by such a “grand coalition”.

And, there have been informal discussions between representatives of the PNC, the WPA and the AFC about the possibility of such a coalition. Indeed, Corbin states that one of the reasons he has said that he will not be a presidential candidate for the PNC is that if the coalition is created it will name its own agreed candidate and that person may not come from the PNC.

Within the AFC, however, there is, as yet, no agreement on participation in a coalition of opposition parties. Some in the leadership of the AFC find an alliance with the PNC as hard to swallow as one with the PPP. Certainly Sheila Holder and Kemraj Ramjattan appear keen to maintain the AFC’s individual identity. A meeting of its National Executive Committee, to which I referred in my last commentary, did not agree to rotate its leadership from Raphael Trotman to Ramjattan as expected. Instead, the meeting “reaffirmed its commitment to the principle of rotation of its top two candidates for the 2011 election bid” and deferred the matter to its national convention later this year.

Among the disaffected leadership of the PNC, there are those who appear convinced that the PNC can win the election on its own. The only problem they see is Corbin’s continued leadership of the Party. As they view it, if Corbin would step aside and allow the party to be reenergised and refocused under its former Chairman, Winston Murray, the party would be a viable contestant for both the glittering prize of the Presidency and the government, both of which have eluded them since 1992.

Against this background it is understandable why some of the leaders of the opposition parties consider it desirable to form a grand coalition in advance of the elections to jointly fight the PPP. For, if the PPP does not win an overall majority, it would need a much smaller number of votes to take it over 50 per cent than would the PNC, and doing that deal would be considerably easier than trying to cobble together a coalition of 10 parties (9 opposition parties that contested the last elections plus the WPA that didn’t).

Putting together such a grand coalition is by no means easy. Agreeing on a presidential candidate may be the least of the problems which will include settling the distribution of parliamentary seats, ministerial portfolios and a set of agreed priority policies and programmes to move the country forward.

While the manoeuvrings within political parties are going on, policies have not risen to the top of debates within the country, but the issues are becoming obvious, among them: a huge gap between “haves” and “have nots”; the need for racial balance in public appointments and crime.

Guyana’s recent economic advancement under Jagdeo has to be developed to provide tangible benefits for all the people. And, the people – particularly the young - will want to hear how and when this will be achieved.

June 18, 2010

Politics of Leadership - Guyana and its presidency (Part-1)

The Politics of Leadership: Guyana and its Presidency (Part 3)

caribbeannetnews

Bahamas Blog International

Weather conditions will keep Gulf oil spill from The Bahamas for now

Weather 'will keep oil spill from the Bahamas for now'
By ALISON LOWE
Tribune Staff Reporter
alowe@tribunemedia.net:



EVEN as the southern border of the surface slick emanating from the Gulf oil spill reaches south of Tampa on the western coast of Florida, weather experts say conditions will keep the oil from beginning to head in the direction of the Bahamas for "at least another four or five days" at the earliest.

"Fortunately it seems as though the God of nature has been smiling on us for some time. The wind patterns do not lend support to anything moving towards our area, so from a weather perspective we've been really fortunate. For the next four or five days we don't see anything of concern, but we've still got to be vigilant," said Mike Stubbs, chief climatological officer at the Bahamas Meteorological Department.

However, this bit of good news has not stopped the government and environmental organisations and agencies in the Bahamas preparing for the worst. Calls for volunteers made by the government and groups like the Bahamas National Trust, the Nature Conservancy and Friends of the Earth in Abaco have resulted in hundreds of people throughout the archipelago expressing their willingness to get involved in clean-up efforts should the oil begin to impact Bahamian shores, according to Minister of the Environment Earl Deveaux.

"From what I've seen personally, there are 500 people who have offered to help (in New Providence alone)," said Mr Deveaux, after personally putting out a call for volunteers just over a week ago.

Plans are in place to run training programmes on safe oil clean-up practices for the volunteers at the Royal Bahamas Defence Force base. When this training will commence depends on evidence being in place to provide a "higher degree of certainty" that the oil is set to enter Bahamian waters imminently, so as not to waste resources, said Mr Deveaux.

Bahamian officials are receiving daily briefings on the position of the oil slick emanating from the April 20, 2010, Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion and subsequent massive oil spill. At present, the oil remains within the Gulf of Mexico, although the Bahamas is not alone within the Caribbean in fearing that the oil will hit the "loop current" and head towards its shores.

"Each day we get report from NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). There are two sources, NOAA and the Roff Report, which is a simulation of the eddy currents and the best model that we are advised is out there. It's used widely by mariners. They overlay that with the spill and that establishes where it is," said Mr Deveaux.

Meanwhile, the government, through the Meteorological Office, is liaising with scientists at the University of Miami who are also keeping a watch on the spreading oil. "They will tell us when it shows signs of having reached Key West, and at that stage they estimate it will be a week before Cay Sal gets it," said Mr Deveaux.

"That will be our indicator to mobilise in Cay Sal, and then we have so many days before we need to mobilise in Bimini and so many days from there to mobilise in Grand Bahama," said Mr Deveaux.

A study conducted earlier this month in the Bahamas by the International Maritime Organisation helped the government determine what equipment it will likely need to carry out the clean-up operation, including gloves and shovels for collecting the "tar balls" that are likely to reach Bahamian shores, and which areas are likely to be worst affected.

Mr Deveaux said that "through our contacts with BP", the British Company - which was leasing the oil rig at the time of the explosion - has indicated that it will provide funding for the clean-up equipment. However, given that this may be a slow process the government is willing to go ahead with purchasing the equipment and seeking later reimbursement if necessary.

"We have money in the NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency) account to do that. We're not going to wait," he said.

Mr Deveaux added that the Bahamas will not ultimately be seeking compensation for the oil spill through the United States government or under any other international conventions, but from BP directly or "the British" since the company is of British origin.

He was responding to a report by the Caribbean Disaster and Emergency Management Agency, which described one of the "challenges" for the Caribbean countries that may be affected by the spill as the fact that none of the "main liability and compensatory regimes" available under international conventions address spills from underwater wells, but rather "from tankers and spills of heavy bunker fuels from non-tankers, shipping accidents involving hazardous and noxious substances or spills from ocean-going shipping."

BP has repeatedly said it would pay all legitimate claims for compensation, but has not defined "legitimate."

From the Caribbean's perspective, the major acknowledged threats to the region from the spill include damage from tar balls reaching the shorelines and the possibility of hydrocarbon poisoning of birds and fish that migrate between the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

US President Barack Obama said Wednesday that BP will place $20 billion in a fund to compensate victims of the spill, with the money to be set aside to insure the oil giant meets its obligations.

It is not clear if this funding, which will not be administered by BP, will only be for US-based victims. Mr Obama said the fund would not supersede the rights of individuals or states to sue BP.

Anyone who wishes to volunteer for the local clean-up should contact the Bahamas National Trust, the Nature Conservancy or Friends of the Earth.

June 17, 2010

tribune242

Bahamas Blog International

Cuba prepares to protect its coast as the BP oil spill continues to spread through the Gulf of Mexico

Cuba prepares for BP oil spill
By Nelson Acosta:



HAVANA, Cuba (Reuters) -- Cuba is making preparations to protect its coast as the BP oil spill continues spreading through the Gulf of Mexico, Cuban officials said on Tuesday.

They offered few specifics about the preparations, but said Venezuela, Cuba's oil-rich ally, has sent a team of spill-fighting experts to help the communist-run island.

Millions of gallons of oil have gushed into the gulf in the 57-day-old spill and fouled 120 miles of US coastline.

Patches of oil reportedly have been seen as close as 100 miles northwest of Cuba and some forecasts have said gulf currents will inevitably carry the oil to Cuba, which is 90 miles south of Key West, Florida.

International scientists say Cuba's waters and coastline are relatively pristine because of the lack of development common in many other countries.

Its northwest coast is a feeding and breeding ground for many species, including migratory sea turtles, sharks and manatees in danger of extinction.

"We are preparing to do everything we can, and of course to receive the help of those who have experience in confronting (oil spills)," Vice Minister of Defence Gen. Ramon Espinosa told reporters at a conference on disaster preparedness.

He said Cuba has suffered small spills from oil tankers, but nothing of the magnitude of the BP spill.

Cuba does not have any offshore oil production, but Spanish oil giant Repsol YPF has contracted for a rig to drill exploration wells off of Cuba's coast later this year or early in 2011.

Cuba's Civil Defence director, Gen. Ramon Pardo Guerra, speaking at the same conference, said authorities were keeping a close eye on the spill and preparing the coastal population for its arrival.

He did not say what Venezuela had provided for Cuba, but said the South American country has long experience in dealing with oil.

"They are specialists who have produced oil for 100 years," Pardo said.

US officials say they met with Cuban authorities in May to discuss the spill and are providing them regular information about its direction.

But Cuba's Deputy Foreign Minister Dagoberto Rodriguez told a visiting delegation of Texas legislators recently that no talks had been held.

Despite 50 years of hostilities between Washington and Havana, he said Cuba was ready to cooperate with its longtime foe in the fight against the spill, said former US diplomat Wayne Smith, who led the delegation to the island.

June 16, 2010

caribbeannetnews

Bahamas Blog International

Jamaica: The voice of the Roman Catholic Church has now been heard - it's no longer "a voice crying in the wilderness"

Church no longer 'a voice crying in the wilderness'
Anthony Gomes




The statement, "Genuine National Transformation", from the Roman Catholic National Justice and Peace Commission, carried as an advertisement in the Sunday Observer of June 6, 2010, and on the website stellamarischurch@cwjamaica.com, is a scholarly treatise of the tragic circumstances leading up to and surrounding the events of May 24 to restore law and order to the community of Tivoli Gardens, by neutralising the criminal elements responsible for the debacle.

The statement authored by the Archbishop of Kingston, the Bishop of Montego Bay and the Bishop of Mandeville, examines the sinister trends that for years have fostered the creation of garrison communities across Jamaica which have "threatened the moral and civil order of our nation".

The statement continues: "All loss of life in a situation of violence is contrary to a Christian ethic, but current events in Jamaica underscore the degree to which we have embraced and even cultivated a culture of death. We need to dismantle this culture of death and violence by intentionally creating a culture of LIFE and PEACE."

Embracing the "culture of death" had grown over the years as the society became numb - desensitised from watching the rising death toll, seemingly out of control, spread like a detestable plague across the country, culminating with a new record of 1680 murders last year. In addition, there were 241 police homicides, and 334 road fatalities, totalling 2255 persons who died violently in 2009! Citizens began to speculate that the country was out of control, either by malevolent design evidenced by absence of any aggressive, offensive response to the criminals, or by the inability of the government to deal with the disastrous situation, broadcast around the world via the internet.

"Like all Jamaicans who desire the good of our nation, we hope that recent events will be the occasion for deep reflection and for steadfast resolve through an agreed time bound programme of action to avoid similar national crises in the future." The steadfast resolve has to be inculcated upon both parties of the government that have to collectively, like it or not, work towards preventing a recurrence of these distressing events.

"Our neglect of this population, and their exclusion from participation in the ordinary benefits of the common good (education, employment, welfare), is a matter of serious social injustice. Worse still, their economic and social disadvantages have been manifested for political ends in a morally abhorrent and reprehensible manner. The present situation then is not a mere social aberration, but the product of an intentional social structure."

The manipulation of the underprivileged members of the society for political ends is truly "abhorrent and reprehensible", and cannot be allowed to continue in any shape or form. The private sector, trade unions and other members of civil society are adamant that the country cannot again be allowed to slip back into this sorry state of affairs. This has been made clear in the numerous press releases and statements appearing in the media.

However, not all opportunities in the press are available to associations responsible for expressing the views of their members, of which the Roman Catholic Church is one such complainant. Repeatedly, one reads about the silence of the collective "churches": Why doesn't the church speak out about the desperate and disastrous activities being perpetrated in our country? The Roman Catholic Church does speak out when it has something positive to contribute to the debate without meddling in politics, or misleading the faithful. One church bulletin stated, "Again, the Church speaks, but the press chooses to ignore our voice." Hence the church considers its voice as "a voice crying in the wilderness". The statement of the National Justice Commission is a cardinal case in point of the church speaking out in a manner not only to embrace its flock but the society as a whole.

"The old order - the way we conduct politics in Jamaica - must change." This demand has been echoed around the world, inspired by Barack Obama's call for universal change to the political architecture of countries. It seems that the recession has acted as a catalyst, which has ignited the attitude of people everywhere, that "enough is enough"! From now on it must be nation above party!

"These garrisons are all zones of exclusion, allowed to exist by a civil society tolerant of tribal politics. Private sector personnel, some of them good church-going businessmen, have made political contributions which have supported this evil system that is an affront to the dignity of the citizens in these areas. The culpability of these Christians who blindly support these political parties cannot be understated. It is imperative that our strategy for creating order - indeed a new one - goes well beyond the objectives of the present limited security operation. It will require the transformation of our social and political infrastructure. This present crisis is a window of opportunity to put in place a new relationship between politics and civil society."

The foregoing describes where Jamaica is coming from and where it must go, to redeem itself as a truly God-fearing Christian society dedicated to the betterment of all its citizens without fear or favour. The statement concludes: "The Roman Catholic Church places itself at the service of the nation to begin the process of our national transformation." The voice of the Roman Catholic Church has now been heard - it's no longer "a voice crying in the wilderness".

June 16, 2010

jamaicaobserver

Bahamas Blog International

Caribbean countries cannot claim compensation for any damage to their territories stemming from BP's Deepwater Horizon Gulf oil spill

Caribbean countries 'cannot claim oil spill compensation'
By ALISON LOWE
Tribune Staff Reporter
alowe@tribunemedia.net:


RESEARCH has indicated that Caribbean countries cannot claim compensation for any damage to their territories stemming from the Gulf oil spill under any current international or US legislation, according to the Deputy Prime Minister.

For this reason, The Bahamas has lobbied the United States Government to update its oil spill legislation - despite the fact that any benefits from the proposed changes will not likely improve Caribbean countries' chances of being compensated for the present spill but only perhaps if a similar incident occurs in the future.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Brent Symonette, in a meeting between Caribbean leaders and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Barbados last week to discuss regional security issues, raised concerns on behalf of Caricom members states about the potential impact of the Gulf oil spill in the region.

Mr Symonette said that the "out of date" legislation was the "most important" point raised by Caricom with Mrs Clinton at the meeting on the question of the growing oil spill.

"Most of the legislative issues - and we have to accept this (a spill like that in the Gulf of Mexico at present) has never happened before - most of the legislative questions are covered in international protocols with regard to discharging oil from tankers, cruise ships and so forth and also the Oil Spill Act in the U.S. which only covers oil spills in the jurisdiction of the US. So we talked about the modernisation of the laws to be able to cover spills from an oil rig," said Mr Symonette.

In a recent report on the oil spill and its implications for Caricom states, compiled by the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), the agency outlines the main liability and compensation regimes under which compensation can be claimed for damage stemming from oil spills. However, it notes as a "challenge for the Caribbean" the fact that such regimes all refer to spills from tankers, shipping accidents or ocean-going shipping.

"The Regional Activity Centre/Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Information and Training Centre (REMPEITC) and CDEMA research has been unable to identify any international convention or fund that will cover compensation for the current emission of oil from a deepwater well for an affected Caribbean state," said the report.

"It should also be noted that the Oil Pollution Act 1990 of the United States of America will provide support to US states but not to countries outside the U.S.

"If necessary, affected countries may have to engage directly with British Petroleum for funding or compensation. The REMPEITC has indicated their willingness to facilitate this discussion," it adds.

The CDEMA report also reveals what have been determined to be The Bahamas' "immediate needs" arising from the potential for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and its potential to impact Bahamian shores.

These include: 4,000 metres of boom to secure "sensitive key areas" from the oil and "personal protective equipment" for 800 people to clean up oil tar balls.

Such equipment should include 2,000 to 3,000 disposable jump suits, 1,000 pairs of boots, 2,000 pairs of rubber gloves, 2,000 face masks, 250 spades or shovels and 250 plastic buckets, said the report.

At present the "greatest impact" expected to be seen in The Bahamas from the oil spill is the arrival of "tar balls" on Bahamian beaches. Such tar balls are usually around a coin size in diameter and not commonly hazardous but may collect on beaches and require manual removal by trained volunteers followed by disposal in a "safe place, recycling or burning."

Volunteers are currently being sought to receive training on tar ball clean up.

June 15, 2010

tribune242

Bahamas Blog International

Rene Preval's troubled Haitian presidency

Preval's troubled Haitian presidency
By Isabelle Van Hook, COHA Research Associate:

Upcoming 2010 Elections: Keystone of Haitian Stability

Amidst the chaos and devastation caused by the 7.0 magnitude earthquake that struck Haiti in January of this year, political catastrophe threatens to exacerbate an already acute humanitarian crisis. Following the earthquake, Haiti’s electoral council suspended the scheduled February legislative elections. The legislative term expired on May 8th, and there are currently no concrete plans for holding new elections.

Presidential elections are scheduled for November 2010; however, the continued disorder and turmoil within the country are also jeopardizing the chances of successfully staging these elections on schedule. Furthermore, the incumbent President, Rene Préval, recently added fuel to the political fire by announcing in early May his intention to remain in office an additional three months beyond the constitutional limit of his term. He has since renounced this decision in response to the surge of resulting negative reactions.

Nevertheless, the prospects for valid elections this year are as shaky as the makeshift homes in which most Haitians continue to live. Throughout May, Haitians expressed their increasing frustration with Préval’s inadequate response and a vacuum of leadership that was seen in the aftermath of the earthquake as well as his disregard for constitutional issues. Although the demonstrators have been relatively peaceful thus far, the protests portend a future escalation of hostilities and even a resurgence of gang-related violence. Clearly, Préval has not carried out his duties as a leader. His once lofty reputation has by now all but dissipated, and many are already calling for his resignation.

Haiti has a long history of political instability, chronic corruption, and violent regime change. Understandably, Haitian civil society is virtually non-existent, and popular faith in governmental institutions is weak at best. Although the atrophied government provides little in the way of services, order, and leadership to its citizens, many outsiders are hopeful that with new elections, Haiti could continue its nascent democratic tradition and boost governmental capacity.

November Elections Possible?

Haiti has never had a robust democratic culture. Even in times of relative stability, elections have often been marred by fraud and corruption. In addition, high illiteracy rates and a general lack of civic identity have impeded the electoral process. The devastation from the earthquake only has added to the list of obstacles to organizing new elections.

To begin with, several million Haitians are still homeless following the earthquake. The Haitian Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) must act quickly to re-register all of these internally displaced voters in the districts in which they now live as well as replace millions of lost voter identification cards. Polling stations, voting machines, and registered voter lists were also destroyed. To complicate matters further, the CEP’s headquarters have been reduced to a makeshift office at a local gym.

These issues may seem relatively simple to fix. Couldn’t the international community simply direct funds towards replacing lost items, registering voters, and set a date for an election? Unfortunately, there are many other long-standing internal complications that obstruct elections. To begin with, many Haitians are skeptical of the CEP’s legitimacy, and with good reason, given its tawdry history. Its nine members were hand selected by President Préval even though the Constitution stipulates that each member be selected by a different governmental or non-governmental organization. Before the CEP begins its task of organizing new elections, its members must be legally and transparently selected, otherwise the elections will be seen as compromised from the start. Many believe that Préval will use his control over the CEP to manipulate elections. As opposition leader Evans Paul told journalist Kim Ives, “Nobody has confidence in Préval or his CEP to organize credible elections.”

Haiti also lacks a strong political opposition that could genuinely challenge Préval’s rule and provide coherent democratic competition. Political parties tend to be small, inherently corrupt, and weak, with no solid political platforms. The earthquake has only magnified the scope of this problem. The current international conversation has not confronted the fact that without viable candidates to run in the elections, no amount of voter registration or new voting machines will produce a successful election.

Haitian support for elections

In light of the current humanitarian situation, many Haitians feel dispirited, if not apathetic, and are increasingly hostile towards their government. Critics believe that Préval has not put in enough effort to rehabilitate the country and provide jobs for victims. As Haitian citizen Rodrigue Desire points out in an interview with the Christian Science Monitor, “We heard from Obama before we heard from Préval after the quake. The government has never done anything for me, so voting for a new one means nothing.” In order to encourage voter participation, the current regime must demonstrate that it is using the billions of dollars of relief aid to directly benefit the victims of the earthquake. At an international conference held in the Dominican Republic on June 2nd, U.N. envoy Edmond Mulet urged that “tangible change must be felt by the men, women, and children living in desperate conditions in the camps in order to avoid this discontent being transformed into social and political instability.”

Beckoning to a political cataclysm

Throughout May, political agitation has steadily escalated as Haitians become increasingly impatient with Préval’s ineffectual rule and the international community’s infuriating patronization of its response to the earthquake. At the June conference Mulet warned, “The longer that the victims continue living in precarious conditions, the more they will have reason to be discontent. That discontent can be manipulated for political ends.” Although the political demonstrations in the island’s capital of Port-au-Prince have been largely peaceful in nature, incidents of violence, arrests, and serious injuries have occurred. On May 18th, while the country was celebrating Flag Day, UN peacekeeping forces fired automatic weapons in an attempt to subdue unrest in the Cité Soleil slum of Port-au-Prince. UN forces also quelled a student demonstration on May 24th at a Port-au-Prince university through the use of rubber bullets, pepper spray, and tear gas. Protestors were expressing their anger over the government’s failure to act in the aftermath of the earthquake and Préval’s attempt to manipulate his constitutional mandate. Many called for the return of exiled former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Several Haitians have been killed in street violence, although the police have described these deaths as unrelated to the protests.

Breeding grounds for resurgent gang-violence

Most worrisome for the overall stability of the country, and especially for Préval himself, is the increasingly violent pressure on his government from former supporters of his National Unity Party, which originally was part of the powerful Lavalas bloc. As early as April, doctors were reporting a sharp increase in cases of gunshot wounds. One anti-Préval gang member told The Observer’s Peter Beaumont, “We are going to fight Préval and the government. We have already got the guns. We have people here from Cité Soleil who want to fight. We’re not going to live in this misery.” Other disillusioned Haitians acknowledged that although they were the ones who had originally elected Préval, they no longer supported him now that he was failing to deliver jobs and assistance.

Chaotic Search for Democracy

Instead of bolstering civic support for the Haitian government through swift and effective action, Préval has thrown the lawful authority of his regime into question by attempting to illegally extend his presidential term by three months. Article 149 of the Haitian Constitution stipulates that in the event of a presidential vacancy, the vice-president of the Supreme Court should take office and conduct elections within ninety days. His chief of staff, Fritz Longchamp, justified this unconstitutional measure as a necessary step to maintain stability and avoid the dangers that power vacuums can pose. Opponents of Préval’s rule speculate that the President is trying to hold on to his office in order to benefit personally from the billions of dollars in international aid, as much of it will be channeled through government hands. Many also fear that Préval’s maneuver was a raw grab for power, reminiscent of the dictatorial rule under the Duvalier family.

On May 18th, Préval rescinded his announcement to continue to remain in power for the three-month extra period in response to the collective outcry against his breach of constitutionality. He assured Haitians that he would step down at the end of his term on February 7th with “calm in his heart,” and promised that elections would be held by the end of the year. While Préval may have been mistaken to try to ameliorate the political situation in the country by pushing for leadership continuity, it may have been equally disastrous to make empty promises to a population that is already dangerously disenchanted with their government. Millions of voters must still be registered, identification cards must be distributed, and voting machines must be manufactured. As of yet, there are no clear candidates to succeed Préval. Inauspiciously, all of this must be worked out in the midst of the hurricane season.

On the other hand, Haiti’s history of authoritarian rule provides little encouragement to give Préval’s administration the benefit of the doubt. Justifiably, many fear that if Préval is allowed to stay an additional three months, he could very well try to stay an additional three years. As part of his continual toadying up to Washington, Préval further corroded his legitimacy even before the January 12th earthquake by banning former President Aristide’s powerful Lavalas party from participating in elections. Préval also banned fourteen other smaller parties from participating in elections. Popular distrust of Préval is evident in the continued demonstrations even after he vowed to step down in accordance with constitutional provisions. The sad fact is that the Préval of recent years has not acted to his former caliber. Préval, once a kinsman of Aristide, has permitted naked ambition for him to play the Judas.

Préval now faces two tough choices: promise elections and risk failure and further discontent, or postpone elections and also face greater discontent. Although Préval’s record is not flawless, the international community deserves some of the blame for the current frustrating political situation in Haiti. A catchphrase of the Haitian reconstruction effort is “build Haiti back better.” However, the supposed international dialogue has stagnated and is content with acknowledging “broad obstacles” and “great challenges,” without taking concrete steps to overcome these problems. As of now, 140 nations have pledged over $5 billion in aid over the next two years, but only Brazil has written a check for $55 million. Haitians know that “positive signs of progress” don’t translate to election preparedness, direct disaster relief, and humanitarian recovery. Lieutenant General Keen of the US Southern Command remarked at a United States Institute of Peace conference in June that the upcoming elections should be viewed as a “glass half-full” situation. However, elections won’t be effectively held through only hoping; the international community cannot stabilize Haiti by clicking its ruby red slippers. The only way to move forward is for Préval and the international community to demonstrate responsibility and make good on their respective promises of aid and fair elections.

The Council on Hemispheric Affairs, founded in 1975, is an independent, non-profit, non-partisan, tax-exempt research and information organization. It has been described on the Senate floor as being "one of the nation's most respected bodies of scholars and policy makers." For more information, visit www.coha.org

June 14, 2010

caribbeannetnews

British Petroleum (BP) Oil-spill anger unlikey to hurt US/UK ties

Oil-spill anger unlikey to hurt US/UK ties
BY ALICE RITCHIE:


LONDON, England (AFP) — US anger at oil giant BP is clouding ties with Britain's new Government only weeks after it took office, but poses little long-term threat to the 'special relationship', analysts say.

US President Barack Obama has ramped up the pressure on BP over the disaster, summoning chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg to Washington, criticising chief executive Tony Hayward and firing a warning over shareholder payouts.

BP's share price tanked last week under the strain and business leaders and politicians in London expressed concern about the impact on British pension funds that invest in BP as well as any backlash against other British firms.

"There is also growing concern that the president's angry rhetoric is going over the top and risks dividing the United States and the United Kingdom," former Conservative foreign secretary Malcolm Rifkind wrote in The Times.

Newspapers here demanded Prime Minister David Cameron stand up to Obama when the two leaders were scheduled to speak yesterday ahead of England's World Cup opener against the USA — which could itself strain ties further.

However, the US State Department and Cameron's Government played down suggestions of a rift, while analysts say the allies' primary concern remains their joint efforts in Afghanistan and over Iran's nuclear programme.

Much hailed in the British press, the historic "special relationship" with the United States has cooled since the close personal ties forged between ex-British premier Tony Blair and former US president George W Bush.

The Obama administration has stressed its close relations with a number of foreign nations, while Cameron's Government promised a close but "frank" relationship with Washington when it took office last month.

"This crisis has heightened that sense of distance, but I don't think in the end it'll have long-term damaging consequences," said Michael Cox, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics (LSE).

He acknowledged the pressure on BP was taking on a patriotic bent, noting the "peculiar" use of BP's old name, "British Petroleum", by the White House.

BP is far from a British firm any more — it employs 22,000 people in the United States and only 10,000 in Britain, while six of its directors are American and six British.

But Cox noted that Obama was under "a huge amount of domestic pressure" and "it's easier to direct attention to an apparently foreign company".

Amid fears of what BP will have to pay out for the oil-spill, US officials are looking to suspend shareholder dividends until compensation is paid.

But analysts at investment bank UBS say it is Obama's pressure as much as any economic fall-out from the spill that caused the share price to collapse last week.

"While progress on dealing with the spill continues, the share price falls now appear to reflect continued pressure from President Obama's administration, much of which appears to be politically motivated," a briefing note said.

Cameron's announcement Thursday that he would raise the issue with Obama "provides some (limited) support for BP", albeit "quite late in the day".

However, Cox suggested that the British premier would want to keep the issue "pretty down on the agenda" in his call with Obama, saying: "There are more important things" such as the Iranian nuclear crisis and Afghanistan.

Scott Lucas, Professor of American Studies at the University of Birmingham, agreed and said he believed the whole diplomatic spat was more in the heads of British newspaper editors than policymakers.

"There is animosity against BP's leadership, there's no doubt about that, because they didn't handle the situation well. But that animosity doesn't translate into a wider issue," he said.

British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg also warned that bringing politics into the fray would not help the clean-up.

"I don't frankly think we will reach a solution to stopping the release of oil into the ocean any quicker by allowing this to spiral into a tit-for-tat political diplomatic spat," he said during a trip to Madrid Friday.

June 13, 2010

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