Clarkenomics Jamaica

CLARKENOMICS: THE ECONOMICPHILOSOPHY OF DR. NIGEL CLARKE!

So, you want to be Finance Minister of an Island economy: 3 minute post-graduate seminar on “Clarkenomics”.

The Principles of Clarkenomics in Jamaica

By Professor Gilbert Morris

Nassau, NP, The Bahamas

Let’s get context: 3 principles of Clarke’s economic management:

1. Macro-economic stability

2. System buffers

3. Targeted intervention

Before these there is a mandate: Clarke’s tenure as Jamaica’s finance minister is proof for the rule “never accept responsibility without authority”.  Keith Duncan led a Jamaica private sector/civil society group, which together insisted on structural/system reforms.  In 2018 they got Clarke elected to carryout those reforms.  This social contract gave Clarke the freedom to fight the economic situation without infighting; it allowed him to choose his team and implement his programme.

Macro-economic stability (MES):

Discuss with your colleagues which metaphor aligns here: is MES terrain, the track or the train?  It was a non-negotiable foundation of Clarke’s approach.  No party favours, no partisan gifts, no patronage for political lackeys.

Buffers:

Buffers are usually thought of as “policy cushions”, softening impacts where policy is delivered.  But Clarke’s approach escapes textbook assumptions by enacting two-way buffers:

1. Buffers where the policy impacts citizens

2. But also buffers where the policy is protected from external impacts

This point is critical for smallislandstates, because we control nothing and our best laid plans may be waylaid by external forces.  Buffers meant the MES programme was flexible and could be nursed through situations; without excuses.

Targeted interventions:

Where there are anomalies (regressions etc.), one can target solutions/corrections/offsets to keep the whole of society engaged. Clarke’s 2019 Budget - finest in history of Caribbean - was a study in these interventions (tax relief, tuition reduction in exchange for charity volunteerism etc.), generating shared commitment to social well-being, whilst maintaining disciplined economic management.

One of the cardinal tenants of Clarkenomics is “trickle up”:  Dr. Clarke turn the age old text book presumption of “trickle down economics” on its head.  He strategised to ensure that people at the bottom felt the benefits first; hence the tax cuts for low wage earners, assistance for students and small businesses.  Clarke resolved that if we want robust markets, customers must have money in their pockets.  He succeeded in that masterfully!

Clarkenomcs resulted in:

1. Reductions in actual debt/reflected in debt to GDP from 144% to 72%

2. Fiscal Deficit reduced to negligible whilst growing economy over 3%; despite Covid!

3. Tax reductions fairly distributed

4. Small Business assistance

5. Half billion in PPPs for infrastructure development

6. Reform of corporate and land registry

7. Thousands of new homes and reduction of unemployment

8. New ICT architecture

9. Best performing stock exchange in the world for 6 years running

10. Upshot in Jamaican Reputational Capital

Clarke didn’t start this movement - Hon. Peter Phillips initiated social partnerships - he maximised it skillfully and with a new disciplined focus. Numerical targets, dates and transparent reporting ensured accountability.

If you want to be finance minister you can’t simply copy Clarkenomics. But the principles are a good place to start!

Source

Jamaica: Lessons From A Bankrupt US City

jamaica-gleaner editorial



In recent days, potential buyers have been rummaging through boxes of Wild West artefacts in a large, old building in the city of Harrisburg in the American state of Pennsylvania.

The pieces were collected for the establishment of a museum, but they are to be auctioned off to help pay the city's debt.  Last month, Harrisburg, the Pennsylvanian capital, filed for bankruptcy, the legitimacy of which a court will rule on this week.

In the meantime, the state government has sent in a receiver to organise a workout plan for the city and to put its finances in order.

Harrisburg is not the only insolvent municipality that has filed for bankruptcy.  Last week, Jefferson County, in Alabama, did so, saying it was unable to service a US$4-billion debt.  In August, Central Falls in Rhode Island also sought protection from creditors.

Cities can, and do, go bankrupt.  And if it happens to cities, it can happen to the nation states of which they are part.

Indeed, that is what Greece and Italy barely escaped and are still fighting to stave off, causing the collapse of their governments, in favour of interim administrations in whose ability to take on tough reforms creditors have greater confidence.  If the numbers behind the debt and fiscal crisis of Europe's PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) are difficult to digest in Jamaica, perhaps the developments in the United States (US) cities will help bring clarity to the danger with which Jamaica flirts by the failure to vigorously confront its own debt crisis.

genesis of the problem

The genesis of the problem in Europe, the US municipalities and Jamaica are, essentially, the same.  They borrowed heavily to fund services or projects which have not, for a variety of reasons, returned enough to service their debts.  In the case of Harrisburg, the overall debt is around $500 million, but the bulk of it is owed on a trash-to-energy facility that has not performed to expectation.

But the city, under its former long-serving mayor Stephen Reed, had a history of going to the market to finance projects.  "He (Reed) never met a bond he didn't like," quipped Harrisburg's controller, Dan Miller.

That sounds like a Jamaican affliction.  Our cane, the debt, not counting yet-unaccounted-for off-book obligations, is $1.6 trillion, or 130 per cent of GDP.  Servicing the debt, including amortisation, takes up three-quarters of income from taxes and grants.  What is left over is sufficient to pay only a third of public-sector wages. So, the country finds itself on a treadmill of debt.

In Jefferson County, roughly analogous to a Jamaican parish, municipal officials, in the face of the fiscal crisis, have laid off workers, cut hours and raised sewerage charges, the debt for which is a major source of the problem. Pensions may not escape.

The options faced by Jamaica are essentially the same, as the International Monetary Fund has been telling our Government.  The public sector has to be reformed, including cutting jobs and overhauling its largely non-contributory, and unaffordable, pension scheme.  The tax system has to be restructured to make it more efficient and to bring more people in its purview.

Political leaders talk about these things, but move on them with little energy, making a threatened debt downgrade more likely, which would increase the cost of borrowing. Which might we prefer: Greece, or Harrisburg?

November 20, 2011

jamaica-gleaner editorial