Following last week's attempted "coup" in Ecuador (we use the speech marks because it is far from clear if the protest over bonuses by some disgruntled sections of the military and police ever seriously threatened, or was even intended to bring down the government, and President Rafael Correa's claim that he was "kidnapped" in a hospital and threatened with death seems dubious to say the least) some fear the left-leaning leader may be inclined to clamp down on the opposition and impose a more radical and/or authoritarian form of government similar to what Hugo Chavez did in Venezuela after the coup attempt there in 2002.
The initial signs are not so positive, with Ecuador's foreign minister Ricardo Patiño saying "what we can expect after an episode like this is the radicalization, the strengthening of the revolution." If Correa does take that path, using the coup attempt as a pretext, it would be a big mistake. Although considered a close ally of Chavez, along with Evo Morales in Bolivia and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, the Ecuadorian president has to date governed in a much less confrontational manner than the Venezuelan leader. What Latin America needs less of is the kind of polarization of society seen in Venezuela, and one thing the region needs more of is stronger democratic institutions, the need for which is evidenced by the eroding of certain democratic freedoms in Venezuela (for example the closure of opposition TV channels), and events like last year's coup in Honduras and last week's unrest in Ecuador.
Leaders such as Chavez, Morales, Ortega and to a certain extent Correa - who has actually overseen a fair degree of stability in what is a notoriously volatile country - need to realize that once in office, a government has to be the government of all the people, and not just those who voted that government into power, or the factions who support it. Consensus, not confrontation, is the key to good government. As Brazil's outgoing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told Morales last year in explaining his own success:
"Evo, the political lesson and the lesson for life here is important. I don't govern only for the poor or the workers. They're my priority, but I govern for all the people."
But given the history of political instability in Ecuador, and realizing how fragile his own situation is, hopefully Correa will be wise enough to tread carefully and avoid excessive confrontation, despite his own inclinations. Since the protests, his government has announced pay rises for the police and military, albeit claiming the move was not related to last week's incidents.
Which brings us conveniently to Brazil, where Dilma Rousseff looks set to continue along a similar road to that taken by Lula in his two terms in office, assuming she wins the presidential run-off vote at the end of October. Whether she will enjoy the success that Lula has had, both in terms of the domestic economy and positioning Brazil on the world stage, obviously remains to be seen. The odds, however, must weigh heavily in Rousseff's favor given the solid base that Lula - once considered a leftist hothead himself - has laid and the positive forecasts for Brazil's economy, buoyed further by the healthy majority she is expected to enjoy in congress.
But Rousseff's Brazil will, of course, face massive challenges, such as in the areas of infrastructure (especially with the World Cup and Olympics coming up), in tackling corruption, in reducing further the unacceptably high poverty rate and in improving wealth distribution.
bnamericas
