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Showing posts with label covid19 pandemic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label covid19 pandemic. Show all posts

Friday, December 24, 2021

Covid is forever

COVID: THE FEARFUL SYMMETRIES

By Professor Gilbert Morris

Worst Case
IMAGINE: a new brutal variant that exceeds the protection of vaccines…


The Samurai is the finest master of self-discipline the world has ever known; more Stoic than the Stoics of ancient lore, more vicious than the Cossacks of Russia or the Gurkhas of Sri Lanka (the most fearsome worries of modern times).
One core element of Samurai culture is he must contemplate his death dozens of times in a day: he must cultivate commerce and comfort with the varieties of death’s multitudinous propensities.
As a strategist, one’s brief is to show clients the varieties of means, methods, incidences, architectures and emerging possibilities of the death of their enterprises; whether they be companies or countries.
There is a childish notion in modern culture by which disease of the mind, the Samurai imperative is avoided. People say things like: “couldn’t you put a positive spin on that”? As if strategy is their favourite ice cream or pizza, upon which they can heap their desired delights!
Others plead, “let’s look at the bright side”, as if one is the marketing and promotions department.
The strategist is a scavenger of risk: his job is to induce discomfort based on the most realistic analysis, not by prediction or even forecast, but by immediate extrapolation from the factual circumstances.
Where the lazy analyst says “well, thing A could likely impact thing B. The competent strategist demonstrates A and B are extremes of a single continuum.
Or where the fawning ‘yes man’ says: ‘things go in phases, there are always ups and downs’, the master strategist shows the phase-guide lacks structural depth or systemic coordinates.
Where the fool treats “success” as organic. The strategist framed it as a “success window”, that is already closing at the moment of its most obvious prowess (Ask Nokia or IBM).

The role of the strategist is to game the situation, enterprise or national prospects in such a manner, at such a scale and with such dimensional scope as to force the client out of complacency into innovation…before the risk metastasises or is realised; to drive the client into the Samurai imperative.
Let’s take the current pandemic: In 2020, I gave four 90 minute lectures on the history, logistics and economic consequences of pandemics from the 4th Century AD to the present. In interviews leading up to the lectures I extrapologised the following:
1. Covid is forever
2. Covid will change the world more in 3 years than the last 300
3. Countries will optimise to save lives but will cost more lives by the measure they impose
4. Democracy under the pandemic will transition to a power vertical with the public’s safety as an excuse
5. Variants will outrun vaccines
6. Vaccine visas will emerge
7. You have to check into countries the way you check into hotels
8. Health records will become the new identity
9. No country will arrive at “herd immunity”, because of the lack of global coordination
10. A variant will emerge and generate so much fear that citizens and governments would turn on each other

I am satisfied that all of these have proven true…yet, it does not have to be this way: the strategy for which I argued was/is:
1. Universal free testing, with 48 billion free tests in an 8 week period
2. Upload tests to a database to gain pattern and flow of the virus
3. Deploy Blue tooth contact tracing and digital diagnostic surveys to overlay the Fibonacci patterns as the emerge
4. Make decisions from data/extrapolations and not events, because humans react arithmetically but pandemics have exponential velocities.
5. Hold global summit to streamline boarder entry protocols
6. Embark $4.5 trillion for global stimulus (using SDRs) rather than raising interest rates

Across the world, only 8 nations gain a measure of these protocols.

Now, today, during this holiday season, in more than 9 European nations, citizens will suffer lockdowns again because of the result of poor, reactionary Covid management by their governments.
In the US, governors of more than 7 states are openly defying basic public health management measures for purely political reasons.
In much of the rest of the world, useless national dashboards, fascistic attacks on unvaccinated persons, desperate copycatting and inflexible, convoluted procedures rule the day: the result will be VARIANTS!
I seem to see (to quote the ancient Seer) that this is all metastasising toward an eschatological global health crisis orders of magnitude beyond what we’ve witnessed or suffered so far. This level of global leadership vacuum and incompetence cannot continue without consequences.
IMAGINE: a new brutal variant that exceeds the protection of vaccines…countries would slam their doors shut, the global economy would collapse, within countries, their oligarchical structures would undermine public trust, billions of children would go uneducated, those with non-Covid medical complaints would die in equal numbers to Covid sufferers. That is to say…our social worlds are poised to retreat by fear, ignorance and hysterical speculation into the worlds imagined in Zombie apocalypses.

Terrifying?
This is what a Samurai would imagine, given what we are witnessing…then he would act to prevent it.

The problem is…it’s happening now!

Wednesday, December 30, 2020

WHY HAS AFRICA FARED SO MUCH BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE WORLD WITH COVID-19?


COVID-19 Africa


 AFRICA IS BEST:

MY BROTHER Ntong Victor Sunday HAS PUT ME TO THE QUESTION: WHY HAS AFRICA FARED SO MUCH BETTER THAN THE REST OF THAT WORLD WITH COVID 19?



The African region is the best performing region in the pandemic.  Africa’s total deaths are less than 10% of the United State’s daily deaths.

But what are the structural reasons for Africa’s superb performance?


1. SWIFT ACTION: In February 2020, a number of African nations - like Lesotho - shut down public institutions immediately, whilst implementing social protocols.  Students of strategy should not see this as merely a decision to act quickly.  Instead, it must also be seen as a tactical understanding of the implications of low facilities capacity and financial resources.  Understanding these facts about their status, led African governments to act to prevent even the “best case scenarios”.
2. YOUNG POPULATION - I have written that the future belongs to Africa because its the youngest of all regions of the world.  It turns out that this is also crucial for Covid 19 infections, since (at least initially), Covid 19 attacked the elderly disproportionately to younger persons.  Africa has an added benefit: it does not “warehouse” its elderly.  Africa and Japan - followed by the Caribbean - are the zones in which the elderly enjoy a near sacred deference; though in the Caribbean, we are beginning to copy American and European models of parking the elderly in ‘death barns’.
3. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION - Most African nations are arranged and operate on the “city-village” dynamic.  As such, the elderly tend to live in the village, whilst younger people crowd to cities.  This means the most vulnerable demographic were largely outside the hotspots for Covid 19 infections.

4. COMMUNITY vs. COMMERCIAL HEALTHCARE: Africa - for the most part - does not have large commercial healthcare systems, as in the US and Europe.  It turns out that these commercial systems are not very flexible and could not react swiftly to the onslaught of the virus spread.  They were limited in capacity, manpower and resources.  In Africa, 90% of healthcare is delivered by small clusters of community clinics and a large volunteer sector.  This produces a complex local information ecology, but one which can metabolise the best in formation quickly and adjust immediately at the community prevention and treatment levels.
5. EXPERTISE: Africa has a growing number of experienced medical personnel, (like Dr. Denis Mukwege, Dr. Stella Immanuel and beloved Dr. Evan Atar Adaha), who worked (suffered) through AIDS, Ebola, West Nile, Malaria, Dengue and a host of other maladies.  Those physicians - as in Senegal - are amongst the most seasoned medical professionals in the world.  In fact, they face a conundrum: come together to collect those skills and knowledge or remain in their communities where they are most effective.  What is more important, they must not try to adopt Western Institutional models, which failed miserably in this pandemic.  Even in countries like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea or New Zealand, which have the best performance records outside of Africa, those nations followed the same decentralised script as African nations.

6. LOCAL KNOWLEDGES: My favourite aspect of the Africa pandemic story is the local knowledge.  In Liberia in 2013-15 International Organisations found themselves not only defeated, but found their medical professionals dying in droves in Liberia in the heat of the Ebola outbreak, which spread to Guinea and Sierra Leone.  THEN CAME THE GRANDMOTHERS: quietly, they put the men and boys outdoors on cots under trees and in tents, sanitised the entire homesteads, open the little hovels in which people lived to fresh air, and made everyone stay off the streets, such as they were and cooked soups.  This broke the spread to nearly nil. (I THOUGHT THESE WARRIOR GRANNIES DESERVED THE NOBEL PRIZE FOR 2014 and 2015, but they are forever in my heart).  This exhibition of local knowledge particularly in places like Monrovia and Bensonville, Liberia (one of my favourites), demonstrated a high degree of “social trust”, the same social trust exhibited in Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and South Korea for their nationals governments.

7. CLIMATE: It is now well-established that SAR-CoV2 - the Coronavirus that caused the pandemic Covid 19 retreats in heat and expands in cooler temperatures.  It is also interesting to note that in larger segments of Africa, Covid 19 emerged near the end of their Summer and into the Fall.  As such, by time as Winter fell, in South Africa for example, three months ago - social practices had hardened already and populations had been well-schooled in the proper protocols, which they followed reinforced by local systems.
These are the major reasons for the low count in Africa of both infections and deaths compared to the rest of the world.  I do not doubt there are anomalies in record keeping, categorisation and other statistical integral systems.   However, its been 11 months and likely those anomalies would have collapsed by now.  I am concerned about the new strains in Britain and South Africa - an unusual distribution pattern - because a virulent strain that replicates the ‘superspreader’ would be deadly, not only in Africa, but worldwide.