Magazine predicts FNM will win in 2012
By CELESTE NIXON
Tribune Staff Reporter
cnixon@tribunemedia.net
Nassau, The Bahamas
THE analysis arm of a renowned financial publication has predicted the FNM will win the 2012 election.
The latest update by The Economist magazine's Intelligence Unit said that while the global economic outlook remains pessimistic, 1.8 per cent growth is expected in the Bahamas in 2011 and 2.3 per cent in 2012 - which should put the FNM in a favourable position for the next general election.
The report said: "With economic conditions improving and the opposition discredited by its own scandals, The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the FNM to retain a majority in the election."
The Intelligence Unit, a sister organisation to The Economist, provides forecasting and advisory services that help "business leaders prepare for opportunity, empowering them to act with confidence when making strategic decisions."
According to the report, the political scene in the Bahamas will be dominated by campaigning for the general election over the next six months.
It said: "The Free National Movement (FNM) led by the prime minister, Hubert Ingraham, has a small but workable majority in parliament and the election will indicate to what extent the FNM's support base has been eroded by the sharp economic contraction in 2008-09 and the government's privatisation programme, which is unpopular among much of the population.
"We forecast growth to pick up in 2012-13, although the more pessimistic outlook for the global economy and particularly the US, which will impact negatively on tourism, will hamper more rapid growth.
"We expect activity to expand by 1.8 per cent in 2011 and 2.3 per cent in 2012. Growth will pick up further thereafter, in line with more benign global conditions.
"Stronger growth will boost tax receipts, but spending will increase in the run-up to next year's election, causing the fiscal deficit to widen to 3.5 per cent of GDP in fiscal year 2011/12.
"The current-account deficit will start to narrow in 2012, as an easing of commodity prices offsets a rise in demand for imports."
The report also spoke of the government's efforts to crack down on crime, noting that on October 3, Mr Ingraham announced the establishment of two new courts to deal with crimes relating to drugs and illegal firearm possession, and a 30-day gun amnesty programme.
It said: "The ability of magistrates to hand down tougher sentences has also been strengthened, with the possibility of sentencing offenders -- including those on drugs and weapons charges -- to up to seven years in prison (raised from five years previously).
"Mr Ingraham also announced that amendments to the Firearms Act and the Dangerous Drugs Act are in the planning stage and that new legislation will strengthen law enforcement powers to address the sale of stolen goods and the proceeds of crime via third parties."
The Intelligence Unit described the new measures as "long overdue".
The unit said: "Considering the country's heavy dependence on tourism, there is widespread concern over the impact that such a deterioration in the security situation will have on the struggling economic recovery."
When informed of the report, FNM chairman Carl Bethel said: "While I have not seen it, let me say that we welcome any confidence from The Economist or other well respected institution, and are gratified that after examining our record the Intelligence Unit came to the same conclusion that we have: that the Bahamian people respect the good governance of the FNM and will reward it in the next general election."
October 25, 2011
tribune242
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Showing posts with label 2012 Bahamas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Bahamas. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Bahamas: Tracing the root of crime and murder in the Bahamian society
Tracing the root of a problem
thenassauguardian editorial
As the year 2010 comes to a close and as one reflects on all that the year had to offer, it’s hard to ignore the major problem that has affected the Bahamian society not just during 2010, but for the past few years.
That is the issue of crime and murder.
Like Rudolph’s red nose, the issues beam brightly, making them hard to ignore.
With over 90 murders recorded thus far for the year, already the country has set a new record in the amount of homicides within one year. And to think that there are still one more day to go before the end of the year. But even if the count does not reach 100, there is still nothing to celebrate, for already we have passed the mark.
As Bahamians look forward to 2011, they cannot help but wonder what the new year holds as far as crime is concerned. Will this new record of homicides committed in 2010 be broken again in 2011?
These once quiet island communities that were the envy and jewel of the Caribbean have now become a prison of fear for most Bahamians, as they listen to the murder count rise with each passing week.
The high rate of crime is evidence that all of the programs that have been put in place, and those that are being activated, are not having the kind of impact those who created them hoped they would have.
While some of the youth programs are having some positive impact, the effects are minimal and slow in taking place. Perhaps it seems that way because the news about crime becomes the main focus.
But the numbers speak for themselves.
The government is stumped about what exactly to do about crime in the country. They’ve watched most of the programs they’ve implemented fail and now they are between a rock and a hard place on what to do next.
The new murder record serves as a reminder of what 2010 was like and a grim prospect of what 2011 holds.
If the high murder rate and the increase in crime in the country is allowed to continue at the rate it has, eventually it will become more than just a big deal.
Like a former chief justice pointed out in a recent interview, crime will eventually affect everything within the country, including tourism and politics. If the government cannot get a handle on crime there will be no more Bahamas as we know it.
As the government, the police and all of the authorities necessary put their heads together to find solutions to crime, perhaps the best thing to do is find the cause.
Putting up Christmas lights brings an idea to mind. When a string of lights refuses to blink on, the only way to make them work is to find the one bulb that may be blown. In order to do that it may mean having to trace all of the wires to find the problem.
That is what needs to be done to get a handle on crime, trace the underlying reasons and causes for crime and begin there. With so many studies that have been done, perhaps now is the time to begin tracing the most immediate causes and begin the campaign to fight crime there.
The bottom line is unless something substantial is done to deal with the crime problem in this country, 2011, 2012 and the years that follow will only promise an even deeper spiral downward.
12/30/2010
thenassauguardian editorial
thenassauguardian editorial
As the year 2010 comes to a close and as one reflects on all that the year had to offer, it’s hard to ignore the major problem that has affected the Bahamian society not just during 2010, but for the past few years.
That is the issue of crime and murder.
Like Rudolph’s red nose, the issues beam brightly, making them hard to ignore.
With over 90 murders recorded thus far for the year, already the country has set a new record in the amount of homicides within one year. And to think that there are still one more day to go before the end of the year. But even if the count does not reach 100, there is still nothing to celebrate, for already we have passed the mark.
As Bahamians look forward to 2011, they cannot help but wonder what the new year holds as far as crime is concerned. Will this new record of homicides committed in 2010 be broken again in 2011?
These once quiet island communities that were the envy and jewel of the Caribbean have now become a prison of fear for most Bahamians, as they listen to the murder count rise with each passing week.
The high rate of crime is evidence that all of the programs that have been put in place, and those that are being activated, are not having the kind of impact those who created them hoped they would have.
While some of the youth programs are having some positive impact, the effects are minimal and slow in taking place. Perhaps it seems that way because the news about crime becomes the main focus.
But the numbers speak for themselves.
The government is stumped about what exactly to do about crime in the country. They’ve watched most of the programs they’ve implemented fail and now they are between a rock and a hard place on what to do next.
The new murder record serves as a reminder of what 2010 was like and a grim prospect of what 2011 holds.
If the high murder rate and the increase in crime in the country is allowed to continue at the rate it has, eventually it will become more than just a big deal.
Like a former chief justice pointed out in a recent interview, crime will eventually affect everything within the country, including tourism and politics. If the government cannot get a handle on crime there will be no more Bahamas as we know it.
As the government, the police and all of the authorities necessary put their heads together to find solutions to crime, perhaps the best thing to do is find the cause.
Putting up Christmas lights brings an idea to mind. When a string of lights refuses to blink on, the only way to make them work is to find the one bulb that may be blown. In order to do that it may mean having to trace all of the wires to find the problem.
That is what needs to be done to get a handle on crime, trace the underlying reasons and causes for crime and begin there. With so many studies that have been done, perhaps now is the time to begin tracing the most immediate causes and begin the campaign to fight crime there.
The bottom line is unless something substantial is done to deal with the crime problem in this country, 2011, 2012 and the years that follow will only promise an even deeper spiral downward.
12/30/2010
thenassauguardian editorial
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