Is Dr. Hubert Minnis simply the Interim Leader of the Official Opposition - Free National Movement (FNM) party in The Bahamas?

Interim leader?

Minnis struggles to establish formidable opposition

BY CANDIA DAMES
Guardian News Editor
candia@nasguard.com
Nassau, The Bahamas

Nearly a year after voters delivered a wholesale rejection of the Free National Movement (FNM), the opposition party finds itself in a familiar place — lacking strong, convincing leadership and struggling to stay effective and relevant even with a government that has so far failed to deliver on key near-term promises made on a grueling campaign trail.

The 2012 general election was bitterly fought with high stakes for both the FNM and the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP).

Although it made a commendable showing, the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) was never really a major force to contend with.

In some circles, Branville McCartney’s name still comes up when discussions take place about a possible leader for the FNM closer to the next election.

But McCartney, the charismatic head of the DNA, has not in my view proven himself an impressive enough leader, though many applaud him for being brave enough to stand up to Hubert Ingraham and resign from his Cabinet, and tenacious enough to go head to head with Ingraham and Perry Christie at the polls.

The PLP and FNM both headed into the 2012 general election with the same problem: What to do about leadership in the event of a loss.

Neither party had a clearly defined succession plan.

With a win at the polls, the PLP was able to kick the can down the road, but for the FNM, the leadership question became an immediate issue and the party needed a quick solution.

The resignation of Hubert Ingraham from the FNM on the night of the election defeat left many supporters reeling, and some have yet to get over his departure from frontline politics.

The wipeout of most of the former Cabinet put the party in a difficult position as it turned its focus toward identifying new leadership.

The Free National Movement was left fractured and bloodied by the May 7, 2012 defeat, and in shambles by Ingraham’s exit from the political stage, and it had very little options.

For nearly a year now, Dr. Hubert Minnis, the popular Killarney MP, has been doing his best to keep the FNM afloat, but he lacks what is needed to re-energize the party.

It does not help that he still has to work against a very strong pro-Ingraham group within the FNM.

It is likely that Minnis was caught totally off-guard by the task placed before him in May 2012.

He has shown great focus in attempting to put the pieces back together, but he comes on the tail of a formidable force, a towering personality, and it might not be possible for him to provide supporters with the kind of comfort, assurance or strong leadership of an Ingraham.

While Minnis must be respected for his leadership style, and it will take time for the party to adjust, it does not now appear likely that the FNM will go into the next general election with Minnis as leader.

For now, he is playing an important role of attempting to keep all the marbles in the circle until the party is able to identify someone who is able to display the kind of leadership and charisma needed to do battle with the PLP once again.

During the last term, FNMs and PLPs alike acknowledged that Minnis was a strong, hard working and likeable MP.  Today, he remains that.

He uses social media and other technologies to communicate with constituents and is deeply engaged in his constituency.

Minnis lucked out though from having a safe seat, and some observers acknowledged that it would have been very difficult for any FNM to lose Killarney, no matter how unpopular Ingraham and the FNM had become in the lead up to the last general election.

While a good MP, Minnis is not a career politician and was not known during the last term as a standout minister.

His communications in Parliament then, and his contributions to debates now are not engaging or particularly informative.

He does not command attention, and even with all the obvious slip ups of the Christie administration, he struggles to use them to his advantage.

There is evidence that he does try, though.

Last week, the FNM leader called for the government and the police to close down web shop gaming after the chief justice lifted an order that had provided the web shops with temporary legal protection.

But it was hard for Minnis to come off as convincing given his early position that he supported the legalization of web shop gaming in The Bahamas.

One issue Minnis has not gotten credit for though is that he asked pertinent questions about the National Insurance Board on the floor of the House of Assembly long before the matter was on the radar of the media or anyone else publicly.

United

Minnis has had a tough first year as leader of the FNM.

He was forced to prop up an obviously bad candidate (Greg Gomez) in the October 2012 North Abaco by-election.

And he angered some supporters when he declared, “The Ingraham era is over.”

North Abaco was the third consecutive election lost by the FNM and some party supporters still struggle from the hurt and disappointments of those defeats.

While some seem to have gotten a recent boost from growing anti-PLP sentiment in social media, over the airwaves and elsewhere, the road to 2017 will be long.

While it has already been publicly revealed that FNM Chairman Darron Cash had been at odds with Minnis, the two in recent months have been careful enough to display a united approach to opposition politics.

They at least seem to have patched things up.

This is a positive sign.

Opposition parties, of course, turn themselves around all the time.  That is how they win elections.

Following the 2007 defeat, the PLP was a weakened bunch with a leader who had been severely wounded by the defeat.

Christie was identified as the key reason the party lost at the polls, and was advised by experts to effect key reforms if the party was to have any real chance at a 2012 win.

In opposition, the PLP never stopped pounding and it never stopped campaigning.

It benefited from a strong group of former ministers who took their blows from the governing party and never took their eyes off of 2012 and the chance it represented.

Only three members of Ingraham’s last Cabinet held on to seats in Parliament: Minnis; Neko Grant (Central Grand Bahama) and FNM Deputy Loretta Butler-Turner (Long Island), whose best approach to opposition politics appears to be boisterous and disruptive behavior in Parliament.

The other FNM members are Edison Key (the MP for Central and South Abaco who also sat in the previous Parliament), and newcomers Richard Lightbourn (Montagu); Peter Turnquest (East Grand Bahama); Hubert Chipman (St. Anne’s) and Theo Neilly (North Eleuthera).

The FNM of today is reminiscent of the FNM that existed for most of the first term of the Christie administration.

Between 2002 and 2005, the party was led by Tommy Turnquest, who sat in the Senate after he lost the Mount Moriah seat.

The FNM under Turnquest was lackluster and fractured, though Turnquest, like Minnis took the leadership job seriously.

In 2005, Turnquest appointed an advisory council of the party headed by former Deputy Prime Minister Frank Watson to advise on what the party needed to do to win the 2007 election.

The council advised Turnquest that there are many FNMs who want him out and Ingraham back in as leader.

Even today, some FNMs think Ingraham could still successfully return to frontline politics.

For them, there is that nostalgic longing for ‘Papa’.

Hiatus

Earlier this year, Ingraham used a familiar word when he told reporters that he was on “hiatus”.

But when asked the context in which he was speaking, he assured that it was not a suggestion that he planned one day to return to frontline politics.

It was a throwback to his word choice during a public event in 2004.

While addressing a group of administrative professions in Freeport, Grand Bahama, Ingraham referred to his departure from frontline politics as a “hiatus” and said it could stay that way as long as those who were in office advanced The Bahamas and its people.

Following Ingraham’s dramatic return as leader of the FNM in 2005, I recall asking an ever-confident Prime Minister Christie to react to the move.

Christie said Ingraham’s legacy was “on the line” and he vowed to politically cremate him in the next general election.

“I’m really sad that he came back,” Christie said.

“He has placed his legacy on the line and when you place your legacy on the line in a battle with the Progressive Liberal Party – Hubert Ingraham, Perry Christie, however one would wish to look at it – he will lose.”

It turned out that Christie’s prediction was wrong — as least as it related to 2007.

Christie had to wait five more years for the political cremation he foreshadowed.

Strange things do happen in politics.

Five years is a long time for the government to show the electorate what it can and cannot do and for the opposition to show its strength or lack thereof.

We would hope though that the FNM does not this time around feel it’s only real hope is to drag Ingraham out of retirement back into frontline politics.

Ingraham has taken the party far over the nearly 20 years he led it.  He has won three general elections and left in place a legacy of which to be proud.

Minnis is right that the Ingraham era is over.

For the FNM, the decision will eventually need to be made on how long the Minnis era could realistically last.

April 22, 2013

thenassauguardian

Bahamas Blog International

The Economist magazine's Intelligence Unit predicts that the governing Free National Movement (FNM) party in The Bahamas will win the 2012 general election

Magazine predicts FNM will win in 2012


By CELESTE NIXON
Tribune Staff Reporter
cnixon@tribunemedia.net

Nassau, The Bahamas



THE analysis arm of a renowned financial publication has predicted the FNM will win the 2012 election.

The latest update by The Economist magazine's Intelligence Unit said that while the global economic outlook remains pessimistic, 1.8 per cent growth is expected in the Bahamas in 2011 and 2.3 per cent in 2012 - which should put the FNM in a favourable position for the next general election.

The report said: "With economic conditions improving and the opposition discredited by its own scandals, The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the FNM to retain a majority in the election."

The Intelligence Unit, a sister organisation to The Economist, provides forecasting and advisory services that help "business leaders prepare for opportunity, empowering them to act with confidence when making strategic decisions."

According to the report, the political scene in the Bahamas will be dominated by campaigning for the general election over the next six months.

It said: "The Free National Movement (FNM) led by the prime minister, Hubert Ingraham, has a small but workable majority in parliament and the election will indicate to what extent the FNM's support base has been eroded by the sharp economic contraction in 2008-09 and the government's privatisation programme, which is unpopular among much of the population.

"We forecast growth to pick up in 2012-13, although the more pessimistic outlook for the global economy and particularly the US, which will impact negatively on tourism, will hamper more rapid growth.

"We expect activity to expand by 1.8 per cent in 2011 and 2.3 per cent in 2012. Growth will pick up further thereafter, in line with more benign global conditions.

"Stronger growth will boost tax receipts, but spending will increase in the run-up to next year's election, causing the fiscal deficit to widen to 3.5 per cent of GDP in fiscal year 2011/12.

"The current-account deficit will start to narrow in 2012, as an easing of commodity prices offsets a rise in demand for imports."

The report also spoke of the government's efforts to crack down on crime, noting that on October 3, Mr Ingraham announced the establishment of two new courts to deal with crimes relating to drugs and illegal firearm possession, and a 30-day gun amnesty programme.

It said: "The ability of magistrates to hand down tougher sentences has also been strengthened, with the possibility of sentencing offenders -- including those on drugs and weapons charges -- to up to seven years in prison (raised from five years previously).

"Mr Ingraham also announced that amendments to the Firearms Act and the Dangerous Drugs Act are in the planning stage and that new legislation will strengthen law enforcement powers to address the sale of stolen goods and the proceeds of crime via third parties."

The Intelligence Unit described the new measures as "long overdue".

The unit said: "Considering the country's heavy dependence on tourism, there is widespread concern over the impact that such a deterioration in the security situation will have on the struggling economic recovery."

When informed of the report, FNM chairman Carl Bethel said: "While I have not seen it, let me say that we welcome any confidence from The Economist or other well respected institution, and are gratified that after examining our record the Intelligence Unit came to the same conclusion that we have: that the Bahamian people respect the good governance of the FNM and will reward it in the next general election."

October 25, 2011

tribune242

Bahamas Blog International

Bahamas: What makes Hubert Ingraham, Hubert Ingraham?

Portrait of Caesar

By Ian Strachan
Nassau, Bahamas




The 2012 election approaches. And Hubert Alexander Ingraham approaches what will in all likelihood be his last general election. Hopefully, win or lose, he will give the nation an opportunity to honor him for his contributions. He does not strike me as a man who cares much for ceremony, so I imagine it will be a struggle getting him to play along. (He has, thus far, refused the knighthood, for instance).

Ingraham appears more indispensable to the party than ever. I know he isn’t really indispensable, but many FNMs seem to think he is. The question is, who will lead the Free National Movement when Hubert Ingraham rides off into the sunset on his fishing boat? The contenders easily come to mind: Brent Symonette, Tommy Turnquest, Dion Foulkes, Carl Bethel, Zhivargo Laing, Hubert Minnis, Duane Sands.

What doesn’t come easily to mind is how any of them will win over the Bahamian voting public. The aforementioned gentlemen may not win in 2017 but, they won’t run the party into the ground either. However, can any of those aforementioned gentlemen re-fashion themselves in such a way that they can gain the confidence and more importantly, the affection of the public? Because say what you will, the people must not only trust your competence, they must identify with you, they must “feel” you.

What makes Ingraham, Ingraham? Well, let’s break it down.

Hubert Ingraham is either loved or hated. It’s hard for people to be lukewarm where he’s concerned. And though some may find it hard to believe, more people love him than hate him. And here’s the other thing about Ingraham: Most of the people who hate him, or think they hate him, respect the heck out of him. Ingraham did not come from Nassau middle class respectability; he did not attend “the old Government High”; he did not travel to the UK for law school and therefore doesn’t have that confusing pseudo-English accent so many barristers have been flaunting. What he does have is the confidence of a rhinoceros and the political instincts of a shark, a tiger or a jackal (take your pick).

Apparently he wasn’t Cecil Wallace Whitfield’s first choice to lead the FNM, but he was smart enough to take the job when Christie turned it down. It takes a special kind of man to stand up to Pindling and beat him twice. It takes a special combination of knowing where all the PLP bodies are buried (in a manner of speaking); speaking to the masses in a plain and unvarnished enough manner to gain their complete trust; and having the spine, the will, the toughness, the guts to face the thousands upon thousands who will rake your name in the muck forever for disrespecting and “betraying” the father of the nation.

Ingraham has maintained his spot atop the FNM because he has fashioned the party to his liking. He has dispatched his legitimate rivals (Dupuch, Turnquest, Allen, Bostwick) and surrounded himself with men ready and willing to kiss his ring. He has been able to keep the FNM’s diverse constituencies engaged, rewarded and fairly happy; he has managed to keep East Bay Street and East Street South satisfied. He has never lost his working class sensibility despite being the smartest man in almost any room he enters. He lacks humility, but he has simplicity, which is just as powerful in the world of fakes, opportunists, narcissists and thieves that politics can sometimes be. Most of all Ingraham knows what he has done for the FNM; he has made them winners. And he knows what every man sitting around his table wants. And once a man like Ingraham knows what you want, he knows what he needs to do and say to keep you motivated, keep you engaged and keep you in line.

I’ll tell you what Ingraham respects: Hard work and discipline. I’ll tell you what he cherishes: People who are prepared to work hard for this country, but have no desire for glory; no warping hunger for power. If you know anything about politics, you know it is a rare breed of man who is willing to serve and not be served. I believe Ingraham is searching diligently, tirelessly, for a successor. I believe he knows who he wants to succeed him. He wants someone who embodies what he thinks is best about himself: A capacity to think analytically and strategically, a capacity for hard work and discipline, a simple and unvarnished style, little interest in foolish pomp and puffery.

What plagues him, what haunts him, is perhaps the fact that those qualities, so vital and admirable in a man, are not enough to hold on to power. You see, Ingraham’s other traits: Obstinacy, pride, rage, misdirection, wit, and ruthlessness are also vital in this Machiavellian “game”. You cannot choose a successor and hope he learns ruthlessness; he reveals that quality naturally, and more than likely, is prepared to direct that ruthlessness at you at the very first opportunity. You cannot make a political leader; he reveals himself.

That means Ingraham’s real successor (not his handpicked head of the party), is not in his cabinet. And if he is, that man must be prepared to desecrate the very image of his mentor to carve out his space as leader of the FNM. The FNM today is Ingraham’s party. It cannot remain so and live.

Does that strike you as ingratitude? Don’t be naïve. What do you think Ingraham himself did? He watched, he learned, and when his moment came, he stuck a knife in Caesar’s back. Any man who would succeed him must do the same.


Ian Strachan is associate professor of English at The College of The Bahamas. You can write to him at strachantalk@gmail.com.

4/26/2011

thenassauguardian

Bahamas Blog International

We Bahamians are an ungrateful people

While the world suffers, Bahamians fiddle

tribune242 editorial




WE SWITCHED the television on. Saudi tanks were rolling into Bahrain to prevent that country's social unrest spilling over Saudi borders. Libyans were rushing in mad confusion to avoid tear gas hoses as the Arab League considered asking the UN to impose a no fly zone to stop Col. Muammar Gaddafi strafing his people from the air - a reporter described Libya's turmoil of cruelty as a "problem from hell." Egypt was still in confusion. In short the Middle East was on fire.

Suddenly, television cameras focused on Japan. There one saw a scene of absolute horror. Viewers were told that Japan had just suffered an 8.9 earthquake, the largest in its history, and the fifth largest recorded in this past century. Then as though an invisible giant had drawn in his breath, taking the ocean with it and leaving behind a denuded coastline, there was a powerful outward roar as a mountain of water rushed back across the land. Out of the earthquake, a giant tsunami had been born and in a twinkling of an eye an ancient town had disappeared from the face of the earth. Houses crumbled under its mighty weight, thousands of men, women and children disappeared before they had time to consider what they could do to save themselves.

What we were witnessing would affect the whole world and an already crippled international economy was pushed back just as it was starting to slowly move forward. As a result of the confusion in one section of the world every man, woman and child on the rest of the globe was caught up in the turmoil. If never before, that short sequence of events was proof that we are all one family caught up in each other's destiny on this one big ship called Mother Earth. As gas prices started to climb -- as a result of the Mid-East crisis --and goods, already too expensive, soared, one wondered if indeed Armageddon was near. At least that was what our maid thought.

"Oh, dear God," she moaned, "the world is in confusion!"

Suddenly she turned angry. "We Bahamians," she said, "are an ungrateful people. See how the world is suffering and we have the nerve to complain about a little inconvenience." Yes, when one compares Bahamians' problems against the suffering of other humans on the same planet, they are indeed "little inconveniences" and we should all hang our heads in shame for trying to make the mole hill into the mountain.

Here we have politicians busy trying to score brownie points against their opponents, not for the betterment of the body politic, but to gain a seat in parliament and to win an election.

While Japanese dug through rubble looking for loved ones, occasionally picking up an empty shoe and weeping for the loss of the human who once walked this Earth in it, Bahamians were squabbling over the sale of a telecommunications company that ill performed at the best of times and should have been put on the auction block a long time ago.

"Bahamians are just too selfish and too greedy, always with their hands out instead of trying to do the best they can with what they have until things get better!" she sniffed, with the toss of her head and the suck on the teeth. "They have gold by comparison and they don't appreciate it!"

While others suffer untold damage, some Bahamians are busy trying to organise their own "small Egypt" -- like the monkey wanting to follow fashion no matter how destructive that fashion.

Today Bahamians are busy trying to figure out how many FNM MPs would have to vote in the House against its government's sale of BTC to send the people back to the polls. As Mr Ingraham told them in today's Tribune, a majority vote against the sale of BTC to Cable & Wireless would be a parliamentary show of no confidence in his government. He would then turn the government back to the people; there would be an early general election, and Bahamians could then vote in a new government. However, he pointed out, the sale of BTC was one of the planks in the FNM's platform, one on which the FNM had won the government.

However, with 24 FNM members in the House to the PLP's 17, Brad McCartney is the only likely FNM to break ranks. This will in no way put the FNM's government in jeopardy. However, Mr McCartney has kept everyone guessing about his final decision of whether it will be an "aye" or "nay" for the BTC vote. The fact that, although he attends House meetings, he has avoided party meetings for many weeks, gives a pretty good indication as to how his mind is set.

Anyway, instead of losing precious time over such matters, Bahamians should thank God that they have a job. It is now up to them to give it their best until they can start climbing the ladder upward again.

March 17, 2011

tribune242 editorial

Bahamas Blog International

Bahamas: The Official Opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) blasts The Bahamas Government's decision to release Haitian detainees

By STAFF REPORTER ~ Guardian News Desk:


The Progressive Liberal Party yesterday hit out at Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham over comments he made on Sunday regarding the government's new policy position on Haitian detainees at the Carmichael Road Detention Centre in the wake of an earthquake that killed thousands and caused widespread devastation in Port-au-Prince a week ago.

Asked on Sunday to respond to the PLP's criticism that it was not consulted prior to the change in policy on detainees, Ingraham said he took what the Opposition says "like water off a duck's back". The PLP said yesterday the prime minister has no regard for the Opposition party and has no regard for his own Cabinet ministers. Minister of State for Immigration Branville McCartney told The Nassau Guardian Friday that the decision regarding the detainees had been made at a higher level.

"Most importantly, Mr. Ingraham does not have any regard for the Bahamian people," the PLP added.

"In fact, he said that he is deeply disappointed in the Bahamian people because they are expressing their democratic right to disagree with his policies."

Speaking on Sunday, the prime minister said, "I accept that any decision by my government would be subject to criticism from certain quarters. That is democracy. But my colleagues and I — as well as the majority of right-thinking Bahamians — are deeply disappointed at the torrent of misinformation, prejudice and hard-heartedness that has spewed especially from the airwaves."

Additionally, the PLP called on Elizabeth constituents to reject the prime minister and the Free National Movement in the upcoming by-election.

"The people of Elizabeth are not playing games. Elizabeth is not for sale," said the PLP.

The PLP's call came days after Ingraham accused the Opposition party of cashing in on the constituency. He was launching his party's campaign at the time.

"Interestingly, Mr. Ingraham is saying that Mr. Malcolm Adderley 'cashed in' on the Elizabeth seat. Mr. Ingraham is admitting to the charges made against the FNM by our leader and our chairman that the FNM engaged in back room deals and played games with our judicial system. He is admitting that the FNM engineered a by-election. This is a game that his party alone hatched, plotted and executed. It is the FNM who cashed in on the people of Elizabeth and are now plotting to buy them back lock, stock and barrel," the PLP statement said.

The PLP claimed the prime minister is attempting to distract the voters of Elizabeth from the real issues like unemployment, home foreclosures, the non-payment of electricity and phone bills, the lack of health care, and children having to leave private school institutions.

January 19, 2010

thenassauguardian

Bahamas Caribbean Blog International

Bahamas: Opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) Chairman Bradley Roberts insists Urban Renewal changes led to rise in crime

By ALISON LOWE:
Tribune Staff Reporter -
alowe@tribunemedia.net:


PLP Chairman Bradley Roberts yesterday branded claims that changes to the Urban Renewal programme did not lead to a rising tide of crime as a "wicked bold-faced lie".

He further charged that had Urban Renewal not been "watered down" under the FNM, the "blatant daytime robbery of some 18 tourists at Chippingham would likely not have occurred".

Mr Roberts claimed that for the Commissioner of Police to try to deny that adjustments to the programme did not result in an upsurge "in serious crime in 'over the hill' areas where the Urban Renewal Programme once flourished, is evidence that the Commissioner is clearly out of touch with the extent of crime and the harsh realities facing locals and visitors alike".

"As the Police Staff Association has now expressed, 'Commissioner Reginald Ferguson's retirement is a step in the right direction'," said Mr Roberts.

It was announced last week that Mr Ferguson is to retire from the force in January 2010.

Mr Roberts' comments come after the Commissioner reacted to statements that have been continually made by the Opposition PLP about the impact of alterations to Urban Renewal on crime.

Commissioner Ferguson told The Tribune that, contrary to claims made by the Opposition, he had seen "no empirical evidence" to show that changes to the initiative have caused an upsurge in crime in the country.

He added that allegations that "Urban Renewal is dead" as has often been asserted by the government's detractors are "a lie".

In yesterday's release, Mr Roberts quoted statistics which, he said, would provide the evidence Mr Ferguson suggested was lacking as proof that the FNM "made a fatal mistake in cancelling/reducing the Urban Renewal Programme".

In the statistics which Mr Roberts provides as evidence of rising crime, he quotes figures for murder, manslaughter, armed robbery, rape, unlawful sex intercourse, burglary, housebreaking, shop breaking and stolen vehicles for 2007, 2008 and for some, 2009.

In the first five categories - violent crimes against the person - the statistics from Mr Roberts show that in the first two years of the FNM administration, incidences dropped.

However, in the last four categories, all crimes against property, incidences rose.

Overall, given the greater rise in the number of property crimes, which are generally more frequent that serious violent crimes year on year, vis-a-vis the less significant drop in crimes against the person, the figures quoted by Mr Roberts show that the number of crimes increased during the FNM's latest term in government, from 6,850 to 7,225.

The FNM has also recently released selected figures from 1999 to 2006 which it says show "the truth about Urban Renewal", comparing crime levels up to the end of the previous FNM administration in 2001, and under the PLP, when Urban Renewal was initiated, until 2006.

"The annual rate of serious crimes, such as murder, armed robbery and housebreaking at all times under their era of Urban Renewal remained higher than it was during the pre-Urban Renewal year 2001; and the murder and housebreaking rates were on the increase in 2006, the last full year of Urban Renewal on their watch," the party notes.

Reports appearing in the US and UK media over the last year indicate that rises in crime levels in those countries, particularly crimes against property, have been linked to recessionary economic conditions.

tribune242

Bahamas Caribbean Blog International