Bahamas: The probability of Andros Island's shorelines being impacted by the Deepwater Horizon/ BP oil spill is less than one per cent

Projections say Andros unlikely to suffer oil spill effects
By NOELLE NICOLLS
Tribune Staff Reporter
nnicolls@tribunemedia.net:



THE probability of Andros' shorelines being impacted by the gulf oil spill is less than one per cent, according to the latest projections of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States.

According to a technical report released Friday by NOAA, the Cay Sal Bank and the Bimini Cays are the most vulnerable territories in the Bahamas for shoreline impact from the Deepwater Horizon/ BP oil spill. They are grouped in the 41 to 60 per cent range. The northwest coast of Grand Bahama has a one to 20 per cent chance of experiencing shoreline impact.

"I received an email indicating that NOAA advised the Bahamas and Cuba that based on their modeling in the next 120 days the oil would be substantially in loop current and the places likely to be affected are Bahamas and Cuba," said Earl Deveaux, Minister of Environment.

"Our response is going to be heightened surveillance. We will continue to update our monitoring, so we know with a high degree of certainty when any sightings occur if they occur in Cay Sal," he said.

The NOAA models assume a 90-day oil flow rate of 33,000 barrels per day. It accounts for the "daily estimated amount being skimmed, burned, and/or collected by the Top Hat mechanism".

The model also accounts for the "natural process of oil 'weathering' or breaking down, and considers oil a threat to the shoreline if there is enough to cause a dull sheen within 20 miles of the coast", states the NOAA.

The Bahamas lies just south of a high risk area with South Florida rated i61 to 80 per cent. Due to the influence of the Loop Current, the Florida Keys, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale are areas of high risk for shoreline impact.

The NOAA issued an advisory on what to Expect in South Florida that stated: "If oil were to reach South Florida, the freshest oil will have spent at least 10 days to 14 days on the water surface. It could arrive in Florida in the form of pancakes of brown oil, streamers of pudding-like emulsified oil, or very thin sheen. As oil on the water surface ages, winds and waves tear it into smaller and smaller pieces, and evaporation and dissolution of its lighter constituents makes it denser and more tar-like.

"Ultimately, floating oil becomes small tar-like balls. If the oil reaches South Florida, responders in South Florida may see a mixture of forms of oil, however, they are most likely to see tar balls," the advisory stated.

There has been no recommendation to station officials in the Cay Sal area to provide surveillance of the Bahamian waters at risk. Cay Sal is a very remote area and has no amenities.

Mr Deveaux said the Royal Bahamas Defence Force in their routine patrol of the Western Bahamas "would be in a position to tell us if they observe any tar balls". He said fishermen who regularly work in the area of the Cay Sal Bank were also providing surveillance for the area.

Based on the "long standing relationship" between the Bahamian government and the University of Miami, Mr Deveaux said the Oil Spill Contingency Team would also be alerted by its partners if oil was spotted in the Florida Cays.

"We get a lot of reports from people flying over; people boating.

"It is commendable the sense of alertness the Bahamian public have," said Mr Deveaux.

July 05, 2010

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Bahamas Blog International

Bahamian Fishermen Fear over Oil Spill in The Bahamas

Fear over oil spill
By K. NANCOO-RUSSELL
Freeport News Reporter
krystal@nasguard.com:


Local fishermen are expressing concerns about the possibility that the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico could reach Bahamian waters, and affect the marine life which is the basis of their livelihood.

Cordero Gardiner spoke with The Freeport News yesterday on the matter, and said he has been following the international news stories on the disaster and was alarmed by the thought of what could happen to the seafood industry.

"I already feel a little frightened because things are already slow. If that (oil spill) comes now things will be worse. If it comes this way we won't be able to go out there and dive. We will be stranded, no money making, no money to support the family," he said.

Gardiner said he owns two boats and goes out to sea daily with his two workers to catch fish and conch.

"We were now talking about that, wondering what would we do. This is all we do. We are fishermen. I never had another job in my life. The only thing I know about is fishing, that's all I do."

It has already been a struggle recently to get business, he said, since the seafood vendors who were previously located around the island were made to relocate to the Goombay Park area in preparation for the Grand Bahama Port Authority's construction of its Farmers Market.

The less accessible location and the fact that all the vendors are forced to compete for the same business has meant lower sales for him, he said. A possible ban on fishing, which is what has been implemented in Louisiana following the spill would be devastating, he added.

Another fisherman, Jer-maine Plakaris, shared similar concerns.

"I am concerned about how it's going to kill our reef, or damage our shores. It will make it little harder for us. I don't know if they're doing anything here about it but I know we going to be in plenty problems because it will affect our fish too," he said.

"This is our livelihood. I don't know what we would do. The only thing we could do is go out further but the oil could still be out there. Plenty people could be poisoned from the fish. Even if you go to another area, the fish could still be contaminated."

In a press conference on Wednesday, Minister of Environment Earl Deveaux said the government is considering following the United States' lead of providing some funding for fishermen who would have been out of work as a result of the oil spill.

Both Plakaris and Gardiner agree that the government should step in insuch an instance.

Speaking to the probability that the spill would indeed affect local waters, Deveaux said Wednesday that something as simple as a change in weather can be a determining factor.

"It's May and next month is June, which is hurricane month and a high pressure system or a low pressure system could change the course of the wind and this thing which is already 2,500 square miles big, which is half the size of our country, is not controlled by any man. It can sweep around Key West, we pray to God it doesn't but it could and when it does and however fast it does it is very likely to affect Bimini, Cay Sal, Grand Bahama and migrate to the west coast of Andros and Abaco," he said.

Today, scientists are to be dispatched to Cay Sal, which is the area the government feels is most vulnerable, to take water and marine samples and determine against the likelihood of the spill turning south and heading into Bahamian waters.

The government is deeply concerned about the oil spill and its likely impact on The Bahamas," Deveaux said. The country's Oil Spill Con-tingency Team, which has been mobilized, will work to refine the country's options, marshall national and international resources and to keep a watchful eye on the spill, the minister disclosed


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