US-Cuba: Is the great thaw on ice?

 

By David Roberts



Cuban President Raúl Castro's recent comments at a summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States that before full diplomatic relations can be established with Washington, first the US must lift the trade embargo on the island, pay compensation for the damage it has caused the country and return Guantánamo military base need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

The US quickly ruled out discussing the Guantánamo base, which is a legacy of the Spanish-American war of the late 19^th century, while the embargo cannot be lifted without congressional approval, which given the fact that both houses of the US congress are now controlled by the Republicans will be no mean feat.

So does that mean the end of the US-Cuba rapprochement? That's unlikely, not least because Cuba has a great deal to benefit from the historic agreement announced in December to restore full diplomatic ties, along with President Barack Obama's pledge to work to lift the 54-year embargo and a prisoner swap.

The embargo was, after all, designed to punish the Fidel Castro regime and encourage its downfall, and Obama had said previously he would not support ending the 'blockade', as it is known in Cuba, unless there was political change on the island. While Cuba has partially opened up its economy in the last few years since Raúl took over from Fidel, there has been zero political change.

The thaw in relations involves what Obama's critics have described as a series of concessions to Cuba with nothing in return, such as increasing the amount of money that can be sent to Cubans and allowing exports of telecommunications equipment and building materials, among others. The US also agreed to ease travel restrictions on its citizens wishing to visit Cuba, and allow US credit and debit cards to be used in the Caribbean country.

Obama also promised to review Cuba's listing on the US government's list of state sponsors of terrorism, where it was placed in 1982 and is currently accompanied by Iran, Syria and Sudan. That decision could pave the way for other economic or political sanctions to be lifted.

Despite these 'concessions,' does the agreement amount to a real change in US strategy towards Cuba? Or is it merely an acknowledgement that isolating Havana is not going to bring political change, whereas encouraging economic ties may lead to the communist-ruled country opening up – widespread use of the internet could be key – and eventually regime change? It seems unlikely that Obama has come to accept the existence of the totalitarian regime and, although he may not say it in public, he presumably believes the fresh approach will indeed result in change.

The risk on the part of Obama, therefore, is limited, given the clear failure of past policies and the fact that much now depends on congress, while the risk on the part of Raúl Castro is much greater. The Cuban regime has long used the embargo and the US policy towards Havana as a scapegoat for the country's ills, and an excuse to rule with an iron fist. If that goes, the future of communist rule will be threatened. That is a risk that Raúl Castro (maybe even both Castros) must be well aware of, just as he surely must have expected Washington's predictable response to the Guantanamo demand. So while it's easy to be cynical and cast doubt on his sincerity and willingness to follow through on the agreement, the Cuban leader's courage to enter this period of entente with Washington is something worthy of recognition.

February 10, 2015

BN Americas

...progress towards a more just US-Cuba relationship...

Obama administration breaks with historic Cuba policy; implements dramatic changes

By Ryan O’Regan
Research Associate for the Council on Hemispheric Affairs:


Just hours ago, the Obama Administration began instituting new policies regarding travel, trade, and commerce between Cuba and the United States. Following over 50 years of staunchly regressive policies regarding the Cuban Republic, these changes are now being widely welcomed on both sides of the Florida Strait.

A Host of New Policies

As posted on the White House website, highlights of the new policies include:

• An expansion of general licenses available to US citizens wishing to travel to Cuba, including: “(1) family visits; (2) official business of the US government, foreign governments, and certain intergovernmental organizations; (3) journalistic activity; (4) professional research and professional meetings; (5) educational activities; (6) religious activities; (7) public performances, clinics, workshops, athletic and other competitions, and exhibitions; (8) support for the Cuban people; (9) humanitarian projects; (10) activities of private foundations or research or educational institutes; (11) exportation, importation, or transmission of information or information materials; and (12) certain export transactions that may be considered for authorization under existing regulations and guidelines.”

• A raise in allowed quarterly remittance levels from $500 to $2,000 for cash sent from Cuban-Americans to relatives across the Strait. Importantly, remittances headed to independent startups will no longer require a specific license, thus easing the way for US residents to aid Cuba’s budding entrepreneurial class.

• Legalization of certain exports to the island, such as building materials, agricultural equipment, and business-related goods.

• Allowance of imports by licensed travelers up to $400 worth of goods from Cuba, “of which no more than $100 can consist of tobacco products and alcohol combined.”

• Financial relaxations allowing the creation of correspondent accounts in Cuba by US institutions, and the use of debit and credit cards on the island.[1]

Moreover, the Obama Administration has also announced a review of Cuba’s often-criticized status as an alleged State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST).[2]

Progress: Present and Future

While these reforms are hardly revolutionary, they represent a step in the right direction, and should the administration overcome steep opposition in the newly elected Republican Congress, continued progress could catalyze genuine transformation for Cuba and its citizenry.

By cutting some of the red tape surrounding US commercial activity with the island, the new policies will grant private enterprise a notable, much-needed boost. Remittances have long served as start-up capital for new businesses on the island. By simplifying the process of sending cash for entrepreneurial purposes, and raising limits on how much cash can be sent every quarter, these new policies could spur continued growth in private-sector enterprise in Cuba, already strong in the wake of reforms on the part of Raúl Castro’s government.[3] New rules on equipment exports should also help to alleviate some of the shortages caused by the ongoing US embargo.

These reforms’ positive impact on Cuba will almost certainly extend beyond the private sphere. US remittances already serve as a vital source of foreign currency for the Castro government, and by raising potential influxes by 300 percent. the new rules should help to secure imports for an island that, as of 2014 imported 80 percent of its food.[4] At a time when Cuba is seeking to increase its reserves (currently at $10 billion) over possible political and economic turmoil in Venezuela, remittances will only become more vital as a source of hard currency for the island.[5]

Of all the new policies announced, however, the review of Cuba’s status on the US list of SSTs provides the greatest portent of change. Since 1982, Cuba has stood accused by the United States of sponsoring left-wing terrorism in Africa and Latin America. Cuba’s place on the list, long criticized as illegitimate and unfair, has been put forward as the motivation for a large portion of US sanctions against it. A review could very likely result in Havana’s removal from the list. This would automatically remove a host of sanctions, grant it access to international institutions such as the IMF, and help open the way for greater rapprochement between the United States and Cuba.

Conclusions

On the whole, the newly-implemented policies, combined with the recent prisoner exchange and Cuba’s subsequent release of 53 political activists, establish the bedrock for progress towards a more just US-Cuba relationship, but fall far short of what is necessary if the United States truly intends to normalize relations with the island.[6] If relations are to move forward, the administration must follow through with its removal of Cuba’s status as an SST, but President Obama can only do so much. The true challenge to normalization lies in the embargo itself, and Republicans in Congress must be cajoled into finally repealing the cluster of laws that make up its core.

References:
[1] “FACT SHEET: Charting a New Course on Cuba.” The White House. December 17, 2014. Accessed January 16, 2015.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Feinberg, Richard. “Middle Classes in Socialist Cuba.” The Brookings Institution. November 8, 2013. Accessed January 16, 2015.
[4] Blue, Sarah A. 2013. Internationalism’s Remittances: The Impact of Temporary Migration on Cuban Society. International Journal of Cuban Studies.
[5] Frank, Marc. “Cuba Inches toward Transparency, Seeking Investment and Credit.” Reuters. December 24, 2014. Accessed January 16, 2015.
[6] Calamur, Krishnadev. ” Prisoner Exchange With Cuba Led To Freedom For Top US Intelligence Agent.” The Two-Way Breaking News from NPR. December 17, 2014. Accessed January 16, 2015.

The Council on Hemispheric Affairs, founded in 1975, is an independent, non-profit, non-partisan, tax-exempt research and information organization. It has been described on the Senate floor as being "one of the nation's most respected bodies of scholars and policy makers." For more information, visit www.coha.org or email coha@coha.org

January 20, 2015

Caribbeannewsnow